巴菲特搞不懂半导体行业？

华伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)说自己宁可投资口香糖也不投资芯片。他在稍早前初次访问印度时表示，比起半导体产业，他宁愿投资软件或口香糖。

“我认为我们并不属于任何一种半导体投资，因为我并不了解半导体。像软件或口香糖这类产业我倒是可以理解，”巴菲特表示。

巴菲特稍早前造访印度。在从首尔(Seoul)直飞班加罗尔(Bangalore)机场，于下午4点半降落后，这位80岁的Berkshire Hathaway主席兼CEO随即在5点50分回答了印度媒体一连串提问，毫无倦意。他以独特的智慧和无穷的精力耐心地回答问题，在超过1小时的时间内，他回答了从投资策略到美印经济问题的提问，深深吸引了印度媒体。

Berkshire Hathaway约有90%的投资都在美国，他承认他在印度或其他亚洲国家的投资脚步有点迟缓。“我这辈子大部份时间都在美国度过，但现在，我看到了更多美国以外的机会。我来印度太晚了，我希望能在这里花一些钱。聊胜于无。”他说。

“有时候，我们会对未来有错误的解读，事实上我错过了很多机会。然而，若一年能得到一个好主意，我就已经觉得很不错了，”他补充道。

他表示，印度是投资者的胜地。“该市场不断增长，而且越来越繁荣，企业蓬勃发展，商机也更多了。”

谈到美国经济时，他指出美国经济正稳步改善，但速度不会太快。“自2009年夏天以来，情况已经改善很多了，不过很难说驱动它的主要因素究竟是什么。人们在谈论的财政政策很重要。人们在谈论的货币政策也很重要。但我认为，最重要的因素是美国人民的韧性。大约有3.09亿美国人都想着让明天更美好。而这三个因素都同样重要。”

在回答美国政府对于印度，特别是班加罗尔夺走美国就业机会的看法时，他表示，“美国有3.09亿人口，有些人会认为无论印度、中国或日本都会带来威胁。我信仰贸易至上，随着时间推移，全球贸易活动不断成长。对全球经济繁荣而言，贸易至关重要。而全球其他地区变得更加富裕，对美国来说也具正面意义。无论是在美国或全球其他任何国家，每个国家都存在着一些抵制其他想法的人。但从经济历史角度来看，他们终将被证明是错误的。”

当被问及他对日本震灾或中东地区政治动荡情势的感想时，他表示，发生在日本的悲剧是非常可怕的。“我们的一个客户也受到影响，但在我有生之年，美国也出现过可怕的事件，如911和2009年秋季的经济衰退。不过，全球的商业活动仍在继续。全球大多数经济体仍会不断发展，我相信美国也是如此。我的孩子会比我生活得更好，我的孙子也会比我的孩子拥有更好的生活。最终这一切都会成为历史……我们的市场/社会将持续产生这种结果。我对此毫不怀疑。当然，其中也不时会出现中断情况，但这是资本主义和市场的本质。在我有生之年，它已经发生很多次了。现在要注意的，是未来5年或20年可能会发生的事情。

巴菲特也概述了他在印度的投资策略。他表示与美国的策略大致相同。“我所了解的企业在未来的5年、10年或20年都前景良好。这些产业的变化不会太过迅速，因为这类产业中都会出现一些成功者和许多失败者，而我并不擅长预测哪些会成功。所以，我期待变化相对较小，而且在5年或10年后表现仍然良好的产业。

“我知道有一些领域/产业的发展良好，但我并不知道在这些领域中有哪些公司会出线。举例来说，1900年，美国大约有2,000家的汽车公司成立。要厘清汽车产业的美好未来并不困难，但困难的是要找出该买哪些公司。这就是我对许多发展中产业的感觉。我认为，一个产业要做得好，就必须是要能够改变人们的生活，只是我不知道这些公司会在哪里。我只专注在我所了解的事物上，”他解释道。

最后，当记者问到他希望给人留下什么印象？是全球最富有、全球最伟大的慈善家，或是全球最杰出的投资者？他的回答非常简洁：“我希望是全球最老的人”，他笑着说，但这无疑带有一丝悲伤的色彩。

点击参考原文：Warren Buffett in India

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Warren Buffett in India

Sufia Tippu

Bangalore -- Preferring metal sheets to silicon chips, billionaire investor, Warren Buffett, in his maiden visit to India said he would rather invest in software or chewing gum industries than semiconductor industry.

“I don’t think we have attributed any kind of investment towards semiconductor industry, I don’t understand it all. I think about the software industry or the chewing gum industry, something that I can understand,” he said during his media interaction on 22 March.

After his touchdown in Bangalore airport at 16:30, direct from Seoul, this 80-year-old chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway, was all set to take a barrage of questions from the Indian media at 17:50, with no tangible signs of tiredness at all. Rather, he enthralled the Indian media with his inimitable wit and endless energy and patience answering questions ranging from investment strategies to philanthropy to American and Indian economy, for over an hour.

With about 90 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments located in the United States, he admitted he was a bit “ retarded” when it came to making investments in India or any other Asian country. “I have always been a stay-at-home fellow for most of my life but now I see more opportunities outside of the US. I have come to India pretty late and hope to spend some money here. Better late than never,” he said

“Sometimes we have misread the future and there are a number of opportunities that I have missed. But if I could get a good idea a year, I feel very good about it,” he added.

He said that India was a dream market for investors. “The market is growing, getting more prosperous by the day, businesses are flourishing and opportunities are many more now," Buffett said.

Commenting about the American economy, he said that the US economy was improving steadily though not a great rate. “It is improving fairly since the summer of 2009 and it’s hard to say what the major factors are. People talk about fiscal policy and that’s important. People talk about monetary policy and that is important too. But I think the most important factor is the underlying resilience of the American people. There are 309 million Americans thinking about doing something better tomorrow. And all these three factors are all equally important.”

Replying to a question on the perception in the US government and the American on the street, about India, particularly Bangalore, taking away American jobs, he replied, “We have 309 million Americans in the US and some people will feel anything is a threat whether it is India or China or Japan, you name it. I am an enormous believer in trade and the more trade the world has the better it is over time. Trade is essential for world prosperity. The more prosperous the rest of the world is, the better it is for the US. The more countries like India and China prosper, the more US will prosper better. There are many people in every country that resist an idea – whether it is the US or any other country in the world. But going by the economic history they will be proved wrong.

When asked about his reaction on the tragedy in Japan or the political upheaval in the Middle East, he said that the tragedy that has happened in Japan was terrible. “One of our clients was also affected but there have been terrible things that have happened in the US too in my lifetime -- for example, the 9/11 and the panic in the fall of 2009. But business goes on. Most economies of the world will march forward all the time and I certainly believe that about the US. My children will live better than I do and my grandchildren would live better than my children. This has been the history….market/ society will keep producing such results. I have no doubt about this. There will also be interruptions from time to time and that is the nature of capitalism and nature of markets. It has happened many times in my lifetime. The main thing to do is to keep an eye on what is going to happen about five or 20 years ahead,”

While outlining his investment strategy and the sectors that he would concentrate on in India, he said it would the same as in the US. “Businesses where I understand the future reasonably well for the next 5 or 10 or 20 years. It wouldn’t be industries that are changing rapidly because in such industries there would be few successes and many failures and I am not good at predicting which ones would be the successes. So I look for industries relatively modest rate of change and which would be doing well 5 or 10 years from now.

“There are a number of areas/industries that I know are going to do well but I wouldn’t know which companies are going to do well within those businesses. For example, in the US, there were roughly 2000 automobile companies established since 1900. All but a few failed. It wasn’t hard to figure out that automobile industry had a wonderful future but it was hard to figure out which company to buy. That’s the way I feel about many of the industries that are developing. I think the industry that is going to do well is the one that is going to change people’s lives and all of that but I just don’t know where its going to be in terms of companies. I focus on things that I understand,” he explained.

And, the final remark he made was poignant in its simplicity. When asked whether he would like to be remembered as the world’s richest man or the world’s greatest philanthropist or the world’s greatest investor, he replied, “I would like to be remembered as the world’s oldest man,” he said with a laugh which had an underlying tinge of sadness.