Market Insight Newsletter of Memory, CPU,HDD from Quiksol-Nov-21

原创 Quiksol电子分销与服务 2021-11-12 13:38 2035浏览 0评论 0点赞

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Dear customers and vendors, welcome to the Market Insights-Newsletter from Quiksol that delivers timely and relevant market intelligence report to the electronics supply chain industry. We hope you find this issue of Market Insights valuable, and we welcome your feedback at Quiksol@quiksol.com.cn

Brands: Micron,Samsung,Hynix, Nanya, Kioxia, MXIC, Winbond,CPU.HDD

Memory spot market update

Overview: Recently, due to the weakening of OEM demand, brokers have focused on destocking to varying degrees,and some memory prices have continued to decrease. On the customer side, due to the shortage of the main control chip, the storage materials in the warehouse are also having difficulties to be consumed, which has worsened the decline of the overall storage market . DDR3 prices continue to fall slowly. Both Micron and Samsung have recently lowered DDR4 prices. Samsung Electronics has shifted part of its DRAM production lines to other products to prepare for price declines. Currently out of stock brands and product lines include Micron’s EMMC, Nor Flash, and Cypress Nor Flash. As the demand for PCs and smart phones continues to weaken, the peak seasons of previous years seem to be cold this year. It is likely to stay this way until the first quarter of next year. The memory market is difficult to reverse, and it is likely to continue to decline.

DDR4 The manufacturer lowered the price of DDR4 by a large margin in October in the fourth quarter. Spot vendors are currently conservative and dare not keep more inventories.Recently, they are mainly buying goods on a one-to-one basis. At present, the price of Samsung DDR4 4Gb is around US$2.15, and the price of 8Gb is around US$3.50; the price of Hynix DDR4 4Gb is around US$2.50, and the price of 8Gb is around US$3.85. The recent demand for DDR4 has been relatively stable, but the purchase price of customers' intentions is getting lower and lower, and theupstream is still selling at low prices in order to reduce inventory. Micron's DDR4 prices have also been reduced, and demand is mostly based on orders.

DDR3 Recently,the price of DDR3 has been relatively stable, and the market demand has been active. This may be because several major memory factories have reduced production of the DDR3 product line earlier, so the number of upstream orders is relatively small. Prices have fallen slightly recently, supply and demand are relatively stable, and may still remain stable. As Hynix DDR3 2Gb has been discontinued, Samsung's 2Gb supply is also in short supply, and the price currently stays at around US$2.20. In addition, Samsung's industrial-grade 2Gb is also in short supply recently, and the price has risen a lot, so you can pay more attention to the supply situation. The most popular part of Hynix DDR3 4Gb, EFR-RDC, has recently increased in demand and the price has risen slightly. Currently, there is not much supply. The price of Samsung DDR3 4Gb remains at around US$2.30, which seems to be difficult to fall below US$2.30 due to the spot quantity. Not many upstream are willing to lower the price to sell. Micron DDR3 2Gb is the same as the market price, and the price is stable around US$2.30. The big difference from other brands is that the price of DDR3 4Gb is still strong above US$3.30. The market was once bearish on this price,but the original factory has not approved the new price. The demand is mostly based on the order, and we dare not stock up. For Nanya, prices this month have not fluctuated much compared to before, and prices have fallen slightly. NT5CC256M8JQ-EK is still in short supply, and we hope it can be relieved next year.

Nand Flash For Kioxia, demand has been weak recently, and prices have fallen slowly. Macronix is not out of stock, and the price is better than in previous months. If there is demand, you can buy it as soon as possible. For Winbond, the price is better in the same situation as Macronix. In general, Micron Nand flash is not out of stock, and the price is slowly falling.

Nor Flash For Macronix, there is no shortage of general-purpose parts in the near future, and customer needs can be easily solved. However, the delivery time of some partial materials has not been shortened, and it is difficult to solve it for a while. In terms of Cypress, most parts are still in short supply, and the original delivery time is more than 40 weeks, and the follow-up supply is still not optimistic. As for Micron, most Nor are still out of stock. Compared with previous months, some parts have recently arrived, which has curbed the pace of price increases to a certain extent. As for Winbond, recently customers have placed some delivery orders. Please contact us if you have any needs, so as to maximize your cost savings.

EMMC In terms of KIOXIA, low-volume products are relatively out of stock recently, and there is no obvious trend change in other parts for the time being. Samsung EMMC has relatively stable demand recently, and its price is stable. It may be affected by the main control IC. The supply of upstream channels has not been too much,and it is difficult for customers to buy at very low prices. Since EMMC has fallen to a lower price, you can pay more attention to the supply and demand of upstream and downstream, and prepare part of the safety stock appropriately. Micron EMMC is still highly out of stock. The current order delivery period is even more than one year. I have never seen such a crazy EMMC market. The price can raise almost two or three times a week. It seems that only the manufacturer's bulk shipment can save it. Micron’s high prices have forced many factory customers to look for alternatives to other brands. Once the market calms down,Micron’s market share in EMMC may shrink.

Memory Module The recent domestic double eleven e-commerce activities have not brought significant heat to the market, brokers are not willing to stock up, and the market for memory modules is still upside down. Also, due to the continuous decline in PC demand, the upstream channel inventory pressure is relatively high, and price reductions have been the main focus. The current price of PC memory modules has fallen to a lower price, especially the 8GB memory modules are close to their previous lows, and the current prices are relatively stable compared to before. Server memory modules have prepared more inventories in the OEM in the first half of the year, and now they are still focusing on digesting the inventory. The willingness to pick up the goods is not strong, the demandis still weak, and the price is slowly falling.

SSD The solid state drive market has been relatively stable recently, and the demand has improved slightly. The main demand is reflected in the SATA hard drive. Due to the limited upstream supply, the recent shipment price has also increased slightly compared to previous record. However, the duration is relatively short, and the market is still unwilling to accepting high prices. Upstream are still focusing on destocking under the condition of inventory pressure, and the current situation is relatively stable. Subsequent demand may shift to NVMe PCle products, so pay more attention to demand trends.

Average market price details are listed in the following table.

Pls take as a reference of below 4 tables

Table1-Dram Spot Price

Table2-NAND Flash Spot Price:

Table3-Memory Module Spot Price:

Table4-SSD Spot Price:

CPU

Step into Q4 stage, according to the past practice, Q4 is the most prosperous season of demand, especially including an oversea festival Christmas, the demand isbound to come one after another. However, this year's Q4 seems to be different from previous years, the market is not as hot as expected, most of the demand has been delayed back. Most of this is due to the active IC components out of stock and price has doubled or tripled, resulting in most of the customer's projects can't run, which leads to the slow recovery of the market, but this does not prevent some of the Intel's net working items still hot as red and purple.

PU CPU: The overall market demand is relatively weak. The prices of most desktopsare falling down and some of the mainstream models of the 11th generation products as well, some of the agents are losing money on some deals. The old PC CPU items, such as i3-6100, i3-8100, the demand is also weak, the price is also dropping. The item i3-6100, the formal price is US$130.00, but now the price is US$110.00; i3-8100, the formal price up to US$150.00, now it dropped to US$120.00. The seven series products- i7-6700, there is not much stocks of this CPU, most of the stocks is from agent, the shipping price is around US$285.00,and we can see from the market, the brand new parts price is over US$330.00.The most popular CPU of the desktop is the low-end series. G series products such as G3900, G4900, G4900T, and G5400 are still in short supply. The original factory delivery is unstable and the price has risen significantly. However,the customer’s acceptable price is still low, and the G4900 price is close to $76.00 and that is difficult to make a deal.

Server CPU: Recently, the server CPUs are out of stock. The conventional series 4 series and 6 series are all popular products. 4110,4208,4210,4210R,4214, the price has also risen by nearly 25%, like the normal price of 4210 is US$330.00,due to lack of stock, now the price is higher than US$440.00, the goods are still rare. 6226R, 6230, 6248R are lacking as well. At the same time, there is a situation where the market is covering goods, which has also aggravated the shortage of XEON parts. However, from the demands of end customers, there has not been a clear and large demand. However, it should be certain that the price of XEON CPU will continue to rise rapidly in the future.

Mobile CPU: On overall, the notebook CPU demand is relatively weak compared to before.The mainstream series of 11-generation products i5-1135G7, i3-1115G4 demand is also weak. Both the agent and the market do have some stock, and the price is relatively low. The 7th and 8th generation series products are actually lacking, and the price is slightly higher than the normal price, i5-7200U,I5-8250U, I5-8265U, I5-8350U, I7-8550U, if there is a suitable good price, then the order rate is still relatively high. Small-core notebook CPUs such as N3350, N3160, N4200 and other products have relatively weak demand. If there is demand, we should be able to get a good price.

IOTG:The hottest and most out-of-stock products in Intel are the IOTG series products, including embedded CPU, Lan Chips, and Ethernet Controller, coveringa wide range of fields. This part of the products, because the agents are allprepared according to the demands of their major customers, so the inventory inthe market is relatively small, coupled with the adjustment of Intel’s production line, the supply of IOTG products is getting worse and worse, and the delivery time is getting longer and longer. It has been more than 40 weeks,and the typical hot Internet celebrity items such as:E3845, the normal bookingprice is US$30.00 around, but now the market price is around US$160.00, the stocks is extremely less, and the agent only can get a few hundred pieces.Other similar models are also particularly tight in supply, such as: E3815, E3825,E3930, E3940. The supply of Lan chips is also extremely unstable, and the prices are uneven. The net celebrity item WGI211AT has recently officially issued a document. Due to the production adjustments, this item will be discontinued. The original factory has already asked major customers to switch to the replacement part number WGI210AT. So recently WGI210AT has risen from US$5.50 to US$8.00, and may even increase. The price of WGI210AT is even more messy. The current price ranges from US$16.00 to US$22.00. The probability of an order with a real target price will be much higher. Recently, an Ethernet Controller-NHI350AM4 has turned from red to purple. The normal price of this item is US$23.00, but due to lack of stock, the market price has reached US$170.00 or even higher, and the agent can’t get the goods. The original factory delivery date is very bad, some customers have been on the sidelines for this item, and now they have no choice but to buy the goods at a high pricedue to the special demands of the project. There are also some models that are particularly lacking. The X710 series is also hard to find, and so as the XL710series. WG82574L and WG82574IT are also short of materials, and these two have been discontinued. We can provide a package of 82574IT, if you are interested, please contact us. The Chipsets part is also seriously out of stock, like H110,H470, B460, GLCM236, bosses who has stock can contact with us.

Pls take as a reference of below table.

HDD

1. As we inch closer to the end of year 2021, overall, the whole HDD demand this year is not optimistic compared to last year. Only in March and April, due to the Chia coin, the enterprise HDD demands boomed up, especially for 16TB-18TB parts. The agent’s side have no time to keep stocks, meanwhile several vendors who specialized in HDD many years do make some profit. But it didn't take long time for the crazy market of Chia Coins.

2. Recently, most shipments of enterprise HDD concentrated over 10TB capacity, especially for 14TB-16TB, and it is stocks kept for big OEM customers. For the small capacity enterprise HDD, 1TB-2TB, we can see there is not many stocks in the market, but the supply condition is much better than before, the lead time is around 4-6 weeks. HUS722T2TALA604 for this 2TB HDD, we can get some stocks and the price is around $116, if you have demand you can contact with us. HUS722T1TALA604 this is 1TB parts, still in huge shortage, there is no stocks in the market, if you have long time demand, can load lead time order to book some in advance.

3.In terms of the price, there is still a small price trend, mainly because ofthe shortage of raw materials, so the manufacturers have raised the price accordingly. Couple with the high demand of small capacity HDD, it is unlikely for the price to drop any time soon.