平板电脑、智能手机或将重塑消费电子产业

诸如媒体平板(media tablets)和智能手机等多功能产品的快速崛起，已经对传统单一功能型的消费电子产品带来威胁，市调机构IHS iSuppli指出，到2015年以前，包括MP3播放器和数码相机这类单功能型产品的销售都可能受阻。

从2010~2015年之间，智能手机与平板电脑出货量的复合年增率(CAGR)分别可达28.5%和72.1%，但与此同时，包括便携式导航装置(PND)、便携式多媒体播放器(PMP)/MP3播放器，以及数码相机等产品的销售量，则呈现衰减或是持平。

长期以来，智能手机不断整合更多功能的趋势，已经对消费电子市场带来重大影响。今年稍早，当网络巨擘思科系统宣布将终止Flip手持录影机业务时，许多分析师和观察家都认为智能手机附加视频功能是促成该公司做出此一决定的原因之一。

“当多功能电子设备在市场获得成功，其代价往往是牺牲某些单功能型的产品，但这也代表这些多功能产品正在重塑消费电子产业，”IHS首席消费平台分析师Jordan Selburn说。

Selburn表示，当智能手机和其他产品纷纷增添音讯和其他更广泛的功能时，曾经红极一时的MP3播放器市场已经开始了一个不可逆转的下跌。同样，包括个人导航设备和DSC等其他产品也受到极大影响，Selburn说。

“在许多情况下，用户可藉由转换到使用单一多功能装置，以获得更多功能和便携性，同时还能省钱，”Selburn说。

Selburn表示，以平板电脑来说，目前苹果的iPad仍居主导地位，而且这类平板装置已经为传统的单功能装置带来更多压力。平板电脑可以提供电子书阅读器、音乐及视频播放功能，它也可以是游戏平台、PND和数码相机。

据IHS iSuppli预估，2015年平板电脑的出货量达2.621亿台。届时智能手机出货量预估将从2010年的2.943亿支成长到超过10亿支。

在此同时，全球PMP/MP3的出货量将从2010年的1.801亿台减少至1,268亿台，2010-2015年间的CAGR为-6.8%。在2004-2009年间，这两项产品的年复合成长率高达38.7%。

IHS 也预测PND出货量将从2010年的4.150万台下降到2015年的3,720万台，年复合成长率为-2.2%，而2004-2009年该产品的年复合成长率为88.9%。

点击参考原文：Tablets, smartphones hit sales of CE devices

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Tablets, smartphones hit sales of CE devices

Dylan McGrath

Rapidly growing sales of multifunction products like media tablets and smartphones are coming at the expense of demand for single-task consumer electronics products, according to market research firm IHS iSuppli, which projects sluggish sales for single-task devices like MP3 players and digital still cameras through at least 2015.

Shipments of smartphones and tablets will rise at compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 28.5 percent and 72.1 percent, respectively, for the years 2010 to 2015, according to IHS. Meanwhile, shipments of portable navigation devices (PNDs), portable media players (PMPs)/MP3 players and digital still cameras (DSCs) will either decline or remain flat during the same period of time, according to the firm's projections.

The long predicted trend of consolidation of applications in smartphones is already having major ramifications on the consumer electronics market. Earlier this year, when networking giant Cisco Systems Inc. announced it would discontinue the popular Flip handheld video recorder, many analysts and observers concluded that increasing video capability in smartphones was at least part of the reason.

"The success of multipurpose electronic equipment, often coming at the expense of devices dedicated to a single task, is reshaping the landscape of the consumer electronics industry," said Jordan Selburn, principal analyst for consumer platforms at IHS, in a statement.

Selburn noted that the once red-hot MP3 player market has started an irreversible decline as smartphones and other products have added audio functionality as part of a much broader suite of features. Other products, including PNDs and DSCs have also been hurt, Selburn said.

"In many cases, users can replace a slew of dedicated systems with just one multipurpose device, gaining functionality and portability while simultaneously saving money," Selburn said.

Selburn said the arrival of tablets—a product category that continues to be dominated by Apple Inc.'s iPad—have put even more pressure on sales of single-task devices. Tablets can quite capably provide the functionality of e-book readers, music and video players, gaming platforms, PNDs and cameras in a single product, Selburn noted.

"The story of consumer electronics is an ongoing survival of the fittest, and multi-tasking systems such as media tablets will have a hand in turning yesterday’s hot consumer electronics gear into tomorrow’s fossils," Selburn said.

IHS projects that shipments of tablets will rise to 262.1 million units in 2015, up from 17.4 million in 2010. Smartphone shipments are projected to increase to more than 1 billion units in 2015, up from 294.3 million in 2010, according to the firm.

Meanwhile, global PMP/MP3 shipments are set to fall to 126.8 million units in 2015, declining at a CAGR of negative 6.8 percent from 180.1 million in 2010, IHS said. By contrast, PMP/MP3 shipments rose at a CAGR of 38.7 percent during the previous five-year period from 2004 through 2009, according to the firm,

IHS projects that PND shipments will decline to 37.2 million units in 2015, with a CAGR of negative 2.2 percent from 41.5 million units in 2010. This compares to a booming 88.9 percent CAGR from 2004 to 2009, according to the firm.