诺基亚大裁员，巨头能否再度崛起？

在上周三,诺基亚正式宣布了该公司历史上最大规模裁员，裁员总数达7000人，其中4000人来自于研发部门。诺基亚和埃森哲协议，诺基亚将把塞班操作系统的研发外包给埃森哲，大约3000名诺基亚雇员将随之转移。与此同时，埃森哲将向诺基亚提供可用于未来智能手机的操作系统。

此外，诺基亚计划在2012年底之前裁员4000人，主要涉及芬兰、丹麦和英国；并在2013年之前节省18%的商业研发成本(约10亿欧元)，诺基亚去年的研发成本为56.5亿欧元。

随着诺基亚(Nokia)在移动设备市场迅速衰退，未来芬兰很可能被迫寻找其他成功的公司，作为推动其国家形象的辅助。

今年第一季，诺基亚的手机市占率下降到29%，2007年该数字高达37%，并曾一度达到40%以上的巅峰。但现阶段该公司正面临业务不断下滑的情况，特别是在智能手机市场，而且至少要两年时间，诺基亚才能在该领域建立一个足够强大的滩头堡。此外，诺基亚也正努力整顿以面对强大的竞争对手──苹果公司。

“2007年起，苹果重新定义了移动市场，而现在，它已经在该市场上占据主导地位。诺基亚仍然在试图追赶，但前提是2012年以前，若该公司能顺利进行整顿的话，”Morgan Stanley分析师Patrick Standaert在一份报告指出。“不过，最大的风险，是整个产业生态系统可能已经改变了。”

对诺基亚是否具备在近期内扭转局面能力的负面看法，也同时点出了该公司所面临的巨大挑战。诺基亚仍然是一家拥有数十亿美元销售额的大型企业，但在移动产业中，它却已不再被视为一家引领创新的厂商。随着竞争对手如苹果跃居领先地位，诺基亚的成长速度看来并不起眼。例如，2010年诺基亚的销售额为425亿欧元(约622亿美元)，仅较前一年的410亿欧元微幅成长，但却较2007年的510亿欧元大幅下跌。

下一页：牵手微软是否明智的决定？

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在销售下降的同时，其运营费用仍居高不下，从2007年的84%上升到2010年的95%。相较之下，苹果在截至9月25日的财年运营费用为销售额的72%，低于一年前的83%。

2011财年，苹果的销售额预计将上升到1,030亿美元，比前一年提高50%，也比2007会计年度的245亿美元高出近四倍。与此同时，诺基亚则预测2011年销售额为603亿美元，同比增长7%。

诺基亚的主要挑战之一，是投资者担心它可能无法成功地重组其业务：除了与微软联盟以外，该公司还必须削减成本，并推出成功的产品。目前诺基亚仍在平板电脑市场缺席，而且也没有宣布是否打算进军这个热门领域。

我个人对诺基亚为转型所做的努力相当感兴趣。诺基亚CEO Stephen Elop认为该公司与微软合作是明智的决定，这可称之为'双赢'的合作关系(参考电子工程专辑报道:诺基亚拥抱微软：分析芬兰人未知的未来，诺基亚牵手微软是个大胆的决定！)。 广大的电子产业总是上演着潮起潮落的故事，诺基亚虽然是发生在近期的例子，但却是这个产业重复循环的一部分。 多年前，摩托罗拉曾经称霸手机市场，直到芬兰新贵取而代之。

诺基亚终结了摩托罗拉的手机王朝，同时，尽管历经多年的业务重组和引入一定的成功产品，如Droid手机和Xoom平板电脑，但今天的Motorola Mobility看来却只是光环下一个淡淡的影子──其前母公司市值约70亿美元，而苹果市值则达到了3,250亿美元。

移动市场的未来会为诺基亚而等待吗？而这其中，是否带给苹果任何启示什么教训？

点击参考原文：Will Nokia Rise Again?

《电子工程专辑》网站版权所有，谢绝转载

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Will Nokia Rise Again?

Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

Finland may have to find another wildly successful company to serve as its national image booster. Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), once the most celebrated corporate champion for tiny Finland (population 5.3 million), is fading fast in the mobile device market, facing the prospect that turning its fortune around may take years... or not happen at all.

In the first quarter of the year, Nokia's mobile handset market share plunged to 29 percent, from as high as 37 percent in 2007 and at its peak slightly above 40 percent. The trend for the company is downward, especially in the smartphone market, and it may be at least two years before Nokia establishes a strong beachhead in the segment. Additionally, while Nokia is struggling to put its house in order, rivals are pulling strongly ahead, paced by Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), which today represents one of the most disruptive forces in the mobile devices market.

The decline is reflected in Nokia's market value. As of Monday, April 25, Nokia's market capitalization had fallen to $33 billion, down 41 percent in only the last year and almost 80 percent since 2007, according to Morgan Stanley. The stock still faces pressure in the future as the company transitions products from its in-house operating system to Microsoft Windows OS. Once the undisputed leader, Nokia is now chasing the fleeing tail of a nimbler rival.

"Apple redefined the market in 2007 and now dominates the market. Nokia is still trying to catch up with its answer only due by 2012 if it can execute seamlessly," said Patrick Standaert, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in a report. "However, the risk is that the eco-system may have transformed."

That negative perception about Nokia's ability to improve its fortunes in the near future represents the most challenging problem the company faces. It is still a solid enterprise with billions in sales but is no longer considered one of the most innovative OEMs in the industry. Nokia's growth rate is unremarkable, as rivals like Apple have vaulted ahead. In 2010, for instance, Nokia's sales rose a bit sequentially to ?2.5 billion (US$62.2 billion) from ?1 billion but were down sharply from as high as ?1 billion in 2007.

As sales have declined, though, operating expenses have stayed stubbornly high, rising to 95 percent of revenue in 2010 from 84 percent in 2007. By comparison, Apple's operating expenses as a percentage of sales in its fiscal year ended Sept. 25, 2010, was 72 percent, down from 82 percent three years earlier.

Apple's fiscal 2011 sales are forecast to surge to $103 billion, a staggering 58 percent jump from the prior year and quadruple the $24.5 billion the company reported in fiscal 2007. Nokia, meanwhile, is forecast to report sales of $60.3 billion in 2011, up 7 percent from the preceding year.

A major challenge for Nokia is the nagging investor concern that it may not be able to successfully reorganize operations: In addition to the alliance with Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), the company must cut costs and roll out winning products. It currently lacks an offering in the tablet computing market and has not announced whether it plans to get into that hot segment.

I am personally intrigued by Nokia's transformation efforts. CEO Stephen Elop believes he made the right call in teaming up with Microsoft and has called it a "win-win" partnership. Transitions, though, are a staple of the electronics industry, and Nokia's story, though fresh, is only a repeat of an old adventure. Many years ago Motorola was riding the crest of the mobile handset wave until a Finnish upstart came along.

Nokia ended Motorola's reign, and, despite years of reorganization and the introduction of somewhat successful products like the Droid phone and the Xoom tablet PC, Motorola Mobility is today a faint shadow of its former parent, with a market value of approximately $7 billion -- compared with Apple's $325 billion.

Is that the future awaiting Nokia? And is there a lesson here for Apple?