震后急于囤货谨防库存过剩

在311日本地震发生之后，电子产业供应链仍然处于动荡不安的状态；HSBC分析师Steven Pelayo表示：“最近消息来源已经证实，有不少芯片制造商看到急单涌现，因为客户都希望确保供应稳定。”

“来自数家无晶圆厂半导体供应商、通路业者、IDM厂与封测业者的消息都显示，自日本震灾发生之后，订单活动变得十分热络；”Pelayo指出：“显然芯片制造商正试图囤积库存，因为供应端的混乱不安已经影响了整个供应链，也冲击终端产品的生产。”

这可能会是个坏消息：“我们原本认为，震灾后的复苏可能得花上较长的时间，因为在许多潜在的负面状况中(包括硅晶圆、T树脂、电容器/分立器件与光学薄膜的供应问题)，还有其他难以预测的因素(如供电稳定性、物流与人力资本)。”Pelayo表示。

“过去，我们将缓慢的复苏视为潜在的好消息，因为库存消耗将会为2011下半年带来新一波的库存回补效应；”Pelayo指出：“但热络的订单活动虽可能有益于短期需求，我们现在得担心的是，自2009年下半年以来，已经连续五季成长的库存天数。”

Pelayo表示，如果日本震灾的冲击事后证实是有限的，产业界恐怕面临风险──因为目前可能发生的重复下单就会被取消，供应过剩就会成为2011下半年的一个大问题。

点击参考原文：Supply chain hit by 'hoard' mentality

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Supply chain hit by 'hoard' mentality

Mark LaPedus

The electronics supply chain remains in flux following the recent earthquake in Japan.

''Recent checks confirm multiple chipmakers seeing rush orders as customers seek to ensure stable supply,'' said Steven Pelayo, an analyst with The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Ltd. (HSBC), in a report.

''Checks with multiple semiconductor fabless, distributors, IDMs, and package/test suppliers all suggest order activity has been robust since the earthquake in Japan,'' he said. ''Clearly, chipmakers are attempting to hoard inventory given increased risk of supply side dislocations up and down the entire food chain, impacting end product availability.''

That could be bad news. ''We originally expected the recovery to take longer as other factors (e.g. power stability, logistics, human capital) are difficult to forecast amidst a wide range of potential constraints (wafers, BT resin, capacitors/discretes, optical films, etc.),'' he said.

''Previously, we viewed a slower recovery as potential good news, as purged inventory leads to another round of restocking in 2H '11,'' he said. ''However, while strong order activity may be good for near-term demand, we now have to worry that days-of-inventory may build on the already five quarters of increases since the late 2H '09 trough. If the earthquake impact proves more limited, there is a risk that the likely double-bookings happening today are cancelled and excess supplies turn out to be a problem in 2H '11.''