2011年半导体产业发展十大主题

2011年IC市场有啥看头？投资顾问机构Piper Jaffray的分析师Gus Richard列出了以下十大半导体产业主题趋势，预测2011年及之后的市场发展方向。

1. 第四波运算浪潮

Richard认为，移动上网、精简型计算机(thin client)、超便携式计算机的时代已经来临，这是第四波运算技术新浪潮；而在这波浪潮中，关键技术能力不在于处理器，而是连结性、频宽以及超低功耗。iPad、iPhone与Android操作系统都是这个新时代的早期赢家，也是引领第四波潮流的先驱。

2. ASIC被PLD大量取代

芯片设计成本随着制程演进而节节高升，ASIC与ASSP正被可程序化逻辑组件所取代。目前45纳米节点的SoC设计成本估计约8,000万美元，而32纳米组件设计成本则高达1.3亿美元；Piper Jaffray估计，假设毛利率在50%，以上两类芯片市场需求规模须分别达到4亿与6.5亿美元，才能回收利润。

3. 资本密集度升高

在过去的10~15年，有越来越多的半导体业者走向“无晶圆厂(fabless)”或“轻晶圆厂(fab lite)”，越来越少有公司能负担一座先进12英寸晶圆厂的成本。但问题是，谁要为不断上升的资本密集度买单？显然领导厂商如英特尔(Intel)、三星(Samsung)、东芝(Toshiba)、台积电(TSMC)与Global Foundries仍会是支出大户。

Richard指出，虽然目前业界并没有相关的讨论，但看来台积电、台联电(UMC)等厂商开始要求客户必须分摊成本，应该只是迟早的问题；而这也将会是半导体业者资本支出的来源之一，将使资本密集度达到20%左右的周期性高点。

4. 光刻技术(Lithography)成本所占比例增加

光刻技术在半导体业者晶圆厂资本支出中所占比例越来越高，上一代的ASML XT系列193纳米浸润式光刻设备要价3,000万欧元，最新一代的NXT系列要价4,000万欧元；而深紫外光(EUV)光刻设备的价格更加昂贵，目前可出货的预生产设备一套要价4,200万欧元，预计2011年底出货的量产工具，则要价6,500万~7,000万欧元。

5. 摩尔定律发展趋缓的真相

只有三种方法能够提高晶圆厂的产出，第一是微缩芯片制程(摩尔定律)，第二是放大晶圆片的尺寸，第三则是增加晶圆产能。但对除了英特尔与三星之外的所有半导体业者来说，摩尔定律的发展速度正在趋缓，转移至下一代制程技术的脚步也渐渐停顿。

点击进入第二页：杀.手级应用+通讯基础+家庭网络+LED照明+模拟

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6. 越来越多“杀手级应用”崛起

半导体需求新推手的能见度越来越高，这也是长期以来仅受益于单一杀手级应用的半导体产业，终于有机会获得新的成长动力。Richard表示，目前有几个正在崛起的半导体需求动力，其一是由智能手机与平板电脑领军的所谓“第四波”运算，也就是超便携式PC；其次是为因应越来越多装置加入连网功能(无所不在的连结性)，使得通讯基础建设需要升级。

以上这些趋势将推动电子产品的更新周期，同时也将让更多半导体内容进驻现有的设备以及一系列新型设备。

7. 通讯基础建设的投资增加

由于手机通讯内容渐渐由语音转向更多数据，通过IP网络传递的视频内容增加、再加上云端运算兴起，也带动了通讯基础升级的需求。

8. 家庭网络需求大增

家用网络的频宽需求正以每年40%的速度成长，其中光纤到府(FTTH)是在新兴市场推动此方面需求成长的一大主力；网络视频也助长了FTTH市场。有越来越多装置支持HD视频，家庭内有越来越多设备支持上网功能，这些都是家庭网络市场的推手。相关解决方案包括各种无线/有线网络技术。

9. LED照明逐渐普及

世界上有越来越多国家禁用白炽灯泡，也助长了LED照明市场；其速度估计在接下来两年回加快。目前欧盟已经开始禁止75W~100W的灯泡在市场上销售，并将在2012年底之前进一步禁用所有白炽灯泡；美国也采取了类似策略，计划在2014年禁用所有白炽灯泡。

虽然在一开始，省电灯泡(日光灯)应该会是取代白炽灯泡的主流，但假以时日，一旦LED能提供更加亮度质量、量产价格也越来越低，仍将会是最理想的解决方案。Piper Jaffray预估，一般照明用LED灯市场，将以每年增加一倍的速度扩张，今年出货规模估计在2,000万颗，明年将增加到4,000万颗。

10. 模拟市场将因过度投资而走下坡

在过去十年，模拟半导体市场重燃投资者兴趣，且看来吸引了过多的资金；虽然模拟半导体市场蕴含丰沛的利基型商机，但Piper Jaffray认为，模拟半导体业者的前方道路将越来越艰难。该市场与其它芯片市场一样，其毛利与产量是成反比的，也就是说当产量越高、业者利润也越低，但产量越少、业者越赚钱。

德州仪器(TI)的新12英寸晶圆厂加入生产行列后，预期将会以非常高的产量囊括标准模拟组件市场的高市占率，虽然并非所有模拟业者会受到冲击，但那些产品线与TI重迭的竞争对手们势必会面临压力。

翻译：Judith Cheng

点击进入参考原文：10 semiconductor themes for 2011

《电子工程专辑》网站版权所有，谢绝转载

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10 semiconductor themes for 2011

Mark LaPedus

What's in store for 2011? Gus Richard, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, has listed his 10 themes for ICs in 2011 (and beyond):

1. The Fourth Wave of Computing

"In our view, the era of the mobile Internet, thin client or ultra mobile computer is upon us. It is the 4th wave of computing. In our view, in the 4th wave, the critical capability is not the processor capability, but rather connectivity or bandwidth as well as very low power. The iPad, iPhone, and Android operating system are all early winners in this new era, leading the 4th wave."

2. ASIC to PLD Conversion

"ASICs and ASSPs are being replaced by programmable logic devices, PLDs. With each successive node the cost of a design goes up. The cost of a 45-nm SOC chip design is estimated to be roughly $80 million and a 32-nm SOC is$130 million. We estimate that the addressable market of these chips needs to be roughly $400 million and$650 million to make a reasonable return assuming a 50 percent gross margin."

3. The Super Cycle and Increased Capital Intensity

"Over the last 10 to 15 years more and more companies have gone fabless or fab lite as fewer and fewer companies have been able to afford the cost of a leading edge 300-mm manufacturing plant. The question is who is going to pay for the increasing capital intensity. Clearly the dominant manufacturers are going to be spending including: Intel, Samsung, Toshiba, TSMC and Global Foundries.

While we haven't heard of any discussions, we think it is only a matter of time before companies like TSMC and UMC start asking customers to share the burden. We think this will be the source of capital that takes capital intensity back to a cycle high in the mid 20 percent range."

4. Lithography's Increasing Share of Wallet

"Lithography is increasing as a percentage of fab spending. The last generation ASML lithography system, the XT 193-nm immersion, cost 30 million euros; the current generation, NXT, cost 40 million euros. The EUV systems are also more expensive than 193-nm immersion tools. The pre-production tools shipping today cost 42 million euros and production tools due to ship in late 2011 will cost 65 to 70 million euros."

5. The Low Down on the Slow Down of Moore's Law

"There are only three ways to increase the output of a fab. The first is to scale (shrink) the size of the transistor and other structures on a chip (Moore's Law), the second is to move to a larger diameter wafer and the third is increased the number of wafers processed. For all but Intel and Samsung, Moore's Law is slowing and the transition to next generation process technology is grinding to a halt."

6. Increasing Levels of Innovation and Killer Applications

"There is now increasing visibility into new drivers of semiconductor demand. It has been a long time since the semiconductor industry benefited from a killer app that could move the needle in terms of growth. We think there are several demand drivers now occurring. These include: the 4th wave of computing or the ultra mobile era dominated by smart phones and tablets, the second is the proliferation of internet connectivity to an increasing array of devices (ubiquitous connectivity, Ubiquinet as mere 'internet' is no longer appropriate), the need to upgrade the communication infrastructure to support an increasing plethora of devices, the increased use of video over IP and the need to support the mobile internet. We believe these trends are driving an upgrade cycle for electronics as well as increasing semiconductor content in existing devices and a crop of new devices."

7. Increased Investment in Communication Infrastructure

We are seeing a shift to data from voice in mobile phones, increased delivery of video over the internet IP and the emergence of cloud computing. This is driving a need for infrastructure upgrades."

8. Home Networking

"Bandwidth to the home is increasing at a rate of 40 percent per year. Fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) is a significant driver of this growth in developed economies and video over IP is driving the growth of FTTH. The need to support HD video on an increasing number of devices and more connected devices in the home are driving home networking. The solutions will be both WiFi and networks over existing wires, in our view."

9. LED Lighting

"The growth of LED lighting is being driven by increasing global regulation banning the incandescent bulb, which should accelerate over the next 2 years. Currently the EU prohibits the sale of 75W and 100W bulbs and moves to an outright ban on all incandescent bulbs by Dec 2012. The US begins a similar tiered restriction beginning in 2012 with the 100W bulb and all bulbs banned by 2014. While initially much of the incandescent bulb replacement will be CCFL we think over time LED will be the solution of choice as they provide a better quality light and the cost comes down as volumes increase. We estimate that the number of general purpose light bulbs has been doubling every year to an estimated 200 million this year and 400 million units next year."

10. The Analog Bifurcation and Over Investment

"During the lost decade of the 00s, the analog semiconductor market saw renewed interest and likely too much investment. While analog is rich with niche market opportunities, we think it will be harder for companies in the analog market going forward. In analog like other chip markets, gross margin is inversely proportional to volume. That is to say the higher the volume the lower the gross margin and the lower the volume the higher the gross margin.

Moreover, we would expect TI to use its new 300mm fab to drive market share in very higher volume standard analog markets as well. While not all analog companies will be impacted, those whose products and business models overlap with TI will come under pressure."