到2012年，ARM将取代x86在军工业与医疗的主导

市场研究机构Semicast预估，工业与医疗应用领域的32/64位微控制器(MCU)与嵌入式微处理器(eMPU)营收，可由2010年的16亿美元成长一倍，到2015年达到32亿美元的水平，这期间的年平均复合成长率(CAGR)约为15%。而其中受益最多的厂商是ARM，该机构预测在以上应用市场采用ARM核心的微控制器/嵌入式微处理器销售额，可在2015年超越10亿美元。

Semicast指出，从历史记录来看，工业与医疗应用领域通常被视为对组件处理效能要求不高，但事实上，这些应用领域已经成为32/64位嵌入式微处理的大客户许多年。在过去，对嵌入式处理器的需求一般是以“类PC(PC-like)”应用的x86架构组件为主，例如ATM、EPOS、医疗影像系统与单片机等等；这些应用的设计则大多是采用所谓的“Wintel”架构——也就是以英特尔(Intel)处理器搭配微软(Microsoft)Windows操作系统，再加上为特定应用需求所撰写的专属中间件(middleware)。

Semicast首席分析师Colin Barnden表示：“考虑到x86架构平台所拥有的庞大专业应用程序基础、开发工具与相关知识，我们仍看到x86在大多数的工业与医疗领域类PC应用中占据主导地位，甚至长期看来也是这样。”该机构估计，2010年全年度，英特尔仍是工业与医疗应用之32/64位微控制器/嵌入式微处理器的龙头供应商，其x86架构产品营收也将在市场上排名第一。

不过Semicoast也预测，32/64位x86架构组件在工业与医疗应用领域的主导性地位只能维持到2012年，届时ARM将取而代之。目前ARM在工业与医疗领域已经——或者是即将——在不少高成长性的应用中取得相当的占有率，例如消费性医疗装置、马达控制、电子资金转账终端机(EFT transaction terminals)、手持式数据终端机与闭路电视摄影机(CCTV cameras)等。

根据Semicast的分析，让ARM大举进军工业与医疗应用领域的主要推手，是采用Cortex M0与M3核心的微控制器之问世；采用以上两款ARM核心的微控制器，都是以低成本、低功耗、中阶性能的姿态上市，有效地将该类微控制器市场与锁定更低成本与更低功号应用的8/16位微控制器做了切割，也扩展了原先锁定高阶应用的32位微控制器市场版图。

然而，ARM也并非将就此一帆风顺。Semicast表示，英特尔最近发表Atom E600C系列处理器，特别瞄准了工业与医疗应用市场；ARM的其他竞争对手还有瑞萨电子(Renesas)的SuperH、RX与V850架构，Microchip力推的MIPS核心微控制器，以及飞思卡尔(Freescale)所支持的Coldfire与Power Architecture等等。而在工业与医疗应用市场的这场战争也是界线分明，ARM军团可说是所有其他竞争厂商的目标。

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Researcher: ARM to increase industrial/medical sector market share to 2015

Colin Holland

Revenues for 32/64-bit microcontrollers and embedded microprocessors (MCUs/eMPUs) in the industrial and medical sector are forecast to double from $1.6 billion in 2010 to $3.2 billion in 2015, a CAGR of nearly fifteen per cent.

And, according to market researcher Semicast, by far the highest revenue growth is forecast for ARM-based MCUs/eMPUs, with sales forecast to exceed $1.0 billion in 2015.

Historically, says Semicast, the industrial and medical sector has often been viewed as one requiring relatively low processing performance, but it has in fact represented a significant market for 32/64-bit embedded microprocessors for many years.

Previously, demand has typically centered on x86-based devices for use in "PC-like" applications such as ATMs, EPOS, medical imaging and single board computers. In such applications the design typically centers around the "Wintel" combination of Intel processor running Microsoft Windows, with proprietary middleware written to provide the specific needs of the application.

Colin Barnden, Principal Analyst at Semicast Research (Waterlooville, England), and study author, said "Considering the huge base of applications expertise, development tools and knowledge surrounding this platform, Semicast continues to see little drift away from the x86 architecture in most "PC-like" applications in the industrial and medical sector, even in the long term".

For the whole of 2010, Semicast judges Intel to have been the leading supplier of 32/64-bit MCUs/eMPUs to the industrial and medical sector and the x86 architecture to have had the highest revenues.

The x86 is forecast to continue as the leading 32/64-bit architecture in the industrial and medical sector only until 2012, when it is forecast to be passed by ARM.

Some of the areas where ARM has, or is forecast to take, considerable market share include many of the highest growth applications in the industrial and medical sector, such as consumer medical devices, motor control, EFT transaction terminals, handheld data terminals and CCTV cameras.

A substantial boost to the adoption of ARM in the industrial and medical sector says Semicast is the introduction of MCUs based on the Cortex M0 and M3 cores. Both cores enable ARM-based MCUs to be introduced with low cost, low power consumption and mid-range performance and effectively segment the MCU market into 8/16-bit for very low cost or very low power applications, with 32-bit control now extending from the mid-range up.

Semicast says that ARM will not have everything its own way however. Intel's recently announced Atom E600C processor is specifically targeted at industrial and medical applications; the newly created Renesas Electronics now supports the SuperH, RX and V850 architectures; Microchip is pushing MIPS-based MCUs; and Freescale is backing both Coldfire and Power Architecture along with ARM. The battle lines in the industrial and medical sector are thus becoming clear: the ARM Army against everyone else.