IBM要放弃半导体制造，转型轻晶圆厂？

IBM似乎有意逐渐淡出半导体制造领域，将其高阶芯片产品委由三星(Samsung)、GlobalFoundries等伙伴代工生产；由于后两家公司都打算在美国设立晶圆代工据点，更有助于巩固与IBM的合作关系。

IBM、GlobalFoundries与三星将于明年1月在美国共同举办“通用平台联盟技术论坛(Common Platform Alliance Technology Forum)”；根据市场研究机构Gartner的数据，与GlobalFoundries三星的2011年支出总计约120亿美元的规模相较，IBM预估可能低于5亿美元的2011年资本支出显然少了许多。

多年来，IBM一直是半导体科技领域的研发标竿，并以自家制程技术与晶圆厂将研发成果付诸生产；该公司在制程微缩方面的积极进展，包括高频RF CMOS以及绝缘上覆硅(silicon-on-insulator)等技术成果，而其在研发上的领导地位，也催生让众成员能分摊制程技术开发成本的通用平台联盟。

但根据一份资本支出计划分析报告，IBM似乎正朝着逐渐退出先进制程量产的方向迈进，可能会与许多半导体同业一样，不再兴建大型晶圆厂；该份由Gartner所提供的报告显示，IBM最近一次超过10亿美元的半导体资本支出，是在2004年，而当时该公司的资本支出规模排名全球第十一大。

Gartner研究副总裁Bob Johnson指出，在2010年，IBM的半导体资本支出规模挤不进全球前二十大排行榜，预期2011年也不会；他所做的最新预测报告(2010年11月)显示，2011年可能只有10~11家半导体厂商的资本支出规模会超过10亿美元，而全球前二十大资本支出厂商与金额估计依次为：

点击进入第二页：全球前二十大资本支出厂商与金额估计

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三星(92亿美元)、台积电(TSMC，57亿美元)、Intel(50亿美元)、GlobalFoundries(32亿美元)、Hynix(27.5亿美元)、Micron(19亿美元)、Toshiba(19亿美元)、联电(18亿美元)、华亚(16亿美元)、SanDisk(14亿美元)、中芯(10亿美元)、日月光(8.5亿美元)、TI(8亿美元)、Renesas(7.48亿美元)、Elpida(6.34亿美元)、ST(6亿美元)、Rohm(5.74亿美元)、Amkor(5.52亿美元)、Infineon(5.5亿美元)、硅品(5.33亿美元)。

Johnson估计，2011年全球半导体产业资本支出规模总计约511亿美元，较2010年的539亿美元减少5%。值得注意的是，包括日月光、Amkor与硅品等半导体封装测试业者的资本支出规模，看来都比IBM来得高。

如Johnson所言，半导体厂商更上一层楼的关键在于：“你如果不插手内存或是晶圆代工市场，那除非你是Intel。”而就连Intel最近也与FPGA供货商Achronix签署了一份合作生产协议，似乎有意进军晶圆代工市场。不过他也强调，如果2011下半年出现供过于求的状况，厂商可能会削减资本支出规模。

IBM与GlobalFoundries、三星的制程同步化，提供了第二生产来源选项；GlobalFoundries在美国纽约州兴建中的Fab8新厂，距离IBM晶圆厂只有90分钟车程，将拥有30万平方英呎的无尘室、月产能可达8万片晶圆。三星也正在德州兴建新晶圆厂，打算专做代工业务。

“GlobalFoundries与三星将在先进制程领域，成为台积电的强劲对手；”Johnson表示：“IBM未大举投资制造业务，继续扮演研发先驱的角色，看来是有意朝着‘轻晶圆厂(fab-lite)’方向发展。Bernie Meyerson(IBM技术官)绝对不会放弃研发的。”

点击进入第二页：参考原文：Is IBM moving to fab-lite, research heavy? by Peter Clarke

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Is IBM moving to fab-lite, research heavy?

Peter Clarke

IBM appears set to gradually back away from semiconductor manufacturing and to rely for its leading-edge silicon on Samsung and GlobalFoundries as foundry suppliers. Both Samsung and GlobalFoundries are set to have wafer fabs for foundry operations in the United States, which could help cement relations.

IBM, GlobalFoundries and Samsung are set to co-host the Common Platform Alliance Technology Forum at the Santa Clara Convention Center in California on January 18, 2011, but whereas GlobalFoundries and Samsung are set to spend $12 billion in 2011, IBM's spending is likely to be less than $500 million according to data from an analyst at market research firm Gartner.

For years IBM has been a beacon of research in semiconductor technology and had carried that work into manufacturing with its own processes and wafer fabs. As well as including aggressive process miniaturization its pioneering work has included high-frequency RF on CMOS and silicon-on-insulator. Such was its leading position in research that it was able to drive the Common Platform Alliance as a means of sharing semiconductor process research costs.

But an analysis of the capital expenditure plans show that IBM is gradually allowing itself to exit from leading-edge manufacturing at high volume. IBM appears to have joined the broad class of semiconductor companies that will never build a major wafer fab again.

An examination of capital expenditure data from Gartner reveals that the last time IBM spent more than $1 billion on semiconductor capital expenditure in one year was 2004, when it was the 11th biggest spender.

IBM is not in the top 20 of semiconductor capital expenditure in 2010 and nor is it expected to be in the top 20 in 2011, according to Bob Johnson, research vice president with Gartner.

There are going to be 10 or 11 companies in the billion-dollar capex club in 2011, according to Johnson's latest figures. The top 20, with their spending in millions of dollars, is currently set to be:

Samsung $9,200

TSMC $5,700

Intel $5,000

GlobalFoundries $3,200

Hynix $2,750

Micron $1,900

Toshiba $1,900

UMC $1,800

Inotera $1,600

SanDisk $1,400

SMIC $1,000

ASE $850

Texas Inst. $800

Renesas $748

Elpida $634

ST $600

Rohm $574

Amkor $552

Infineon $550

Siliconware $533

Research heavy

Johnson puts the 2011 global semiconductor capex at about $51.1 billion, about 5 percent down on a spend of $53.9 billion in 2010.

It is noticeable that semiconductor test and assembly houses such as Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Amkor and Siliconware appear higher on the list than IBM.

As Johnson said the key to semiconductor manufacturing going forward is that "You are either involved in memory, in foundry or you are Intel." Johnson added that even Intel is getting involved in foundry through its deal with Achronix.

Although 2011 capex could be reduced from the current plans if oversupply situation materializes in the second half of 2011.

The synchronization of manufacturing processes by IBM, GlobalFoundries and Samsung provides second-sourcing opportunities. In Malta, New York, 90-minutes away from IBM's wafer fab complex at East Fishkill, GlobalFoundries is building Fab 8, a 300,000 square foot clean room fab that should be capable of 80,000 wafer starts per month. It is also noticeable that Samsung is building a wafer fab in Austin, Texas, that is expected to be dedicated to foundry work.

"GlobalFoundries and Samsung will be strong competitors to TSMC at the leading edge," said Johnson.

"IBM is not investing heavily in manufacturing. It plays the research leader role," said Johnson. "It looks like fab-lite with a research emphasis. Bernie Meyerson would never give up the research," he added.