8位处理器已死？

传统观点认为，低端处理器已经步入死胡同的末端……

媒体报道来看，现在依然是32位/64位处理器的天下。

如果你在设计新系统的时候不用最新的高端处理器，你就像几万年前的恐龙一样，濒临灭绝。毁灭者就是来自英特尔和ARM的最新处理器。

倒也未必。

看看Microchip，这家公司自通用仪器手中接过运营不善的处理器产品线。依照外界的客观评价，低端的PIC处理器基本上已经可以判定为脑死亡。它们的指令集很有限、地址空间小。大家都知道没法在640K以内的内存里写代码，真正的程序员会选择Atom而不是PIC。

可PIC反倒日益繁盛。Microchip现在有超过700款不同的单片机，占公司业务的80%。尽管Microchip也有32位产品线，但它们所占份额较少。Microchip还是以8位和16位设备为主，PIC销量至今已达到惊人的60亿。

经济形势不景气的现在，半导体厂商的日子也不好过，但Microchip是例外。Microchip上季度实现了破纪录的销售额，年销售额回到15亿美元。Microchip上季度销售额比去年同期增长了68%，利润和红利均有所提高。

Microchip很显然是做了些正确的决策。

低端嵌入式处理器市场的情况也有所帮助。既快又热的45nm制程处理器大举来袭，但很多使用嵌入式处理器的产品不需要那么强大的计算能力。一把智能牙刷能装多大的散热片呢？

过去二十年间，权威人士一再预测8位处理器已死。我不同意：高端处理器降价的同时，低端产品也是越来越便宜，这就打开了很多新市场——很多原本用不起半导体技术的市场。

我相信8位处理器的黄金时代尚未到来。随着价格逼近于零，未来的销量会让今天的数字不值一提。

如果你专精于8051或PIC或其它低端CPU，你不是一只恐龙，你是最早的哺乳动物，新时代的先锋。

点击进入参考原文：8 bits is dead, by Jack Ganssle

《电子工程专辑》网站版权所有，谢绝转载

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8 bits is dead

Jack Ganssle

Conventional wisdom is that low-end processors are a dead-end.

Read the press and it’s pretty clear this is a 32/64 bit world.

If you’re not building a system with the latest high-end processor you’re clearly a dinosaur whose extinction is near. That asteroid? It’s the latest CPU from Intel or ARM.

But maybe not.

Consider Microchip. This is a company which took over a failed processor line that had been poorly marketed by General Instruments. By any objective means the low-end PIC processors are pretty much brain-dead parts. They have limited instruction sets with small address spaces. Everyone knows you can’t write code in less than 640K of memory, so real programmers will use an Atom over a PIC any day.

But PICs thrive. Today Microchip has over 700 different microcontrollers which represent 80% of their business. Though they have a 32 bit line these represent a relatively small section of their market. Mostly they sell 8 and 16 bit devices. And sell these they do, in Sagan-like numbers. Over 6 billion PICs have hit the streets to date.

With the economy in the dumpster the semiconductor vendors are suffering along with the rest of the world. But not Microchip. They announced record sales the last quarter, putting them on track to do $1.5 billion in yearly sales. The quarter was up 68% over the same period last year. Profits, too, improved, and the dividend was increased.

They’re clearly doing something right.

But this also says something about the low end of the embedded processor market. While speedy (and hot) 45nm parts get all of the glamour, a lot of the computing workload shouldered by embedded devices just doesn’t need a lot of horsepower. How big of a heat sink can one afford on a smart toothbrush, after all?

For twenty years pundits have been predicting the death of 8 bits. I disagree; as high-end processors drop in price those at the bottom get cheaper too, which opens up new markets that could never have afforded semiconductor intelligence.

I believe that the golden age of 8 bits has not yet arisen. As prices head to zero, volumes will soar putting today’s numbers to shame.

If your specialty is 8051 or PIC or other low-end CPU work, you’re not a dinosaur. You’re that squirrel-like creature on the forest floor: the first mammal, the herald of a new age.

Jack G. Ganssle is a lecturer and consultant on embedded development issues. He conducts seminars on embedded systems and helps companies with their embedded challenges. Contact him at jack@ganssle.com. His website is www.ganssle.com.