与2011年半导体市场相关的三个好/坏预测

市场研究机构VLSI Research针对半导体市场前景，又提出了几个好预兆与坏预兆；该机构对2010年IC市场成长率的预测仍维持在32%，并认为该市场2011年成长率将缩水为8%。而对半导体晶圆厂设备市场的2010年与2011年成长率预测，则分别为103%与10.6%。

VLSI Research新发表的研究报告指出的半导体市场好预兆/好消息包括：

1. 终端使用者需求升温

VLSI Research指出，电子产品销售已经连续四周成长，这次还飙高到10%，高于13周移动平均值；消费性电子产品、计算机买气都很旺，手机、IT基础设备也表现亮眼。以区域来看，北美、亚洲市场热络，来自欧洲市场的需求也很强劲，但中国市场表现稍嫌平淡。

在电子产品价格方面，整体呈现下滑趋势，主要是因为笔记本电脑降价不少，消费性电子设备与网络基础设施价格也走下坡；手机是唯一价格上扬的产品类别。至于服务器价格相对表现平稳；在网络设备部分，无线路由器价格上涨最多，防火墙设备居次。

在手机部分，LG买气最佳，Nokia与RIM居次；在消费性电子产品部分，LED背光电视与数字相机销售表现平淡，但数字家电与视讯串流设备表现抢眼。

2. NAND闪存市场表现亮眼

VLSI Research表示，拜供应吃紧之赐，NAND闪存现货市场本周亦买气强劲，价格也维持在高点；该机构预期，NAND市场在2011上半年可能会遭遇季节性的供应过剩，但到了下半年会再度崛起。

3. 没消息就是好消息

根据VLSI Research观察，微处理器(MPU)现货市场近期表现静悄悄，整体的每GHz价格表现小跌0.1%；该机构所追踪的200种微处理器组件，销售表现都持平。

至于IC市场上的坏预兆则包括：

1. 芯片市场走下坡

VLSI Research指出，IC市场营收连续四周成长，但主要驱动力量是季节性因素，11月份销售表现通常会优于10月；至于芯片平均销售价格(ASP)连续第二周上扬，但出货量减少的速度则有加快趋势。

2. 晶圆代工市场也走下坡？

第四季晶圆代工的交货期有缩短趋势，产能利用率也下跌，主要是因为下单活动减少；晶圆代工厂客户的库存已经不再缺乏，甚至呈现上升迹象，幸好仍在正常水平。库存水位的上升加上不确定的耶诞采购买气，都是负面影响因素。

3. DRAM市场营收下滑

在最近一周，整体DRAM每位价格继前一周下跌了4.9%之后，又下跌了2.9%；尽管整体价格下跌速度减缓，但负面因素仍然存在。1Gb DDR3现货价较上周下跌了14%，2Gb跌价幅度则为8%；如果DDR3价格持续以两位数字的幅度下跌，二线DRAM厂将会陷入亏损。

点击进入参考原文：Three good and bad signs in IC market, by Mark LaPedus

《电子工程专辑》网站版权所有，谢绝转载

{pagination}

Three good and bad signs in IC market

Mark LaPedus

There is good-and bad-news in the IC market, according to VLSI Research Inc.

As before, the research firm projects that the IC market will jump by 32 percent in 2010 and will grow by 8 percent in 2011. The fab tool market is projected to grow 103 percent in 2010 and 10.6 percent in 2011, according to the firm.

According to a new report from the firm, here's the good news or good signs:

1. End-user demand

"The electronics sales activity surged for the fourth consecutive week, this time by a whopping 10 percent. It’s now well above the 13-week moving average. Consumer and computers were hot. Mobile, IT infrastructure, and PCs also had a strong week. So it was a great week all around. Regionally, North America and Asia were hot. Demand pull from Europe was also strong, while China rose slightly.

On the electronics pricing front, overall pricing continued to trend down due to considerable declines in laptops. Consumer and network infrastructure were also down. Mobile handsets were the only bright spot, finishing the week higher.

"On the server side, prices remained relatively flat over the week. In networking, wireless router recorded the biggest gain, followed by firewall. Gateway, on the other hand, took a big hit last week. On the mobile side, it was unlocked LG handsets that made the biggest gains, followed by Nokia and RIM. In consumer, LED TVs and digital cameras were off, but appliances and video streaming had a strong showing."

2. NAND demand

"NAND Flash had another solid week in the spot market thanks to the tight supply, which is keeping prices at elevated levels. We expect some seasonal glut in the first half of 2011, but in the second half shortages will emerge again."

3. No news is good news

"MPUs had another quiet week in the spot market, though there’s likely to be some movement ahead as Intel ramps its Sandy Bridge platform. Their overall spot price-per-Ghz declined a mere 0.1 percent. Of the roughly 200 MPU parts we track a mere 3 percent recorded losses—same as in the previous week."

According to the firm, here's the bad news or bad signs:

1. Chips are down

"IC billings rose for the fourth consecutive week. Much of the increase is seasonally-driven; November is typically a stronger month than October. Still, the week-over-quarter growth figures remained negative for the fifth straight week. This shows that the momentum has stalled and rolled over. ASPs rose for the second straight week as the decline in units accelerated."

2. Foundry slowdown?

"Foundries are seeing a reduction in lead times and lower utilization rates in Q4 due to a slowing order activity. Inventories for foundry customers are no longer lean; they’re rising, albeit to a normal level. The rise in inventories, along with the uncertain Christmas Blackhole, has led to pullback."

3. DRAM downturn

"The overall spot price-per-bit for DRAM fell 2.9 percent following a 4.9 percent drop in the previous week. Even though the decline for the overall number slowed from the previous week, things remain ugly in the DRAM market. Spot prices for 1Gb DDR3 plunged by as much as 14 percent last week, while those for 2Gb fell nearly 8 percent. If DDR3 prices continue to fall at these double digit rates for a few more weeks, second-tier DRAM makers will lose money."