Symbian和Android引爆智能手机低端市场，苹果却错失良机

市场研究机构ABI Research的分析师认为，低端产品与新兴市场将会是智能手机取得新一波成长性的动力来源，而Symbian与Android平台则是开发这类市场的利器；该机构并预测 2010年全球智能手机销售量可达2亿支，到2014年还能成长一倍达到4亿支。

“高端手机已经引起市场风潮，而这些产品能多快放下身段，将是决定该市场何时迎接新一波成长性的关键；”ABI手机市场研究总监Kevin Burden在一场在线研讨会上表示：“我们将会迎接一个每支手机都是智能手机的时代，但这会是一个缓慢的过程。”

根据ABI的预测数据，智能手机在整体手机市场的销售比例，将会由2009年第一季时的15%，在2010年第四季成长至19%；到了2015年，智能手机则可望占据整体手机销售量的三成以上。

Burden还指出，在众多智能手机供应商中，诺基亚(Nokia)是已经具备迎接下一波成长风潮之优势的厂商；该公司2010上半年智能手机销售量达4,500万支，称霸市场，其销售数字是第二名厂商的两倍。

此外Burden表示，这家芬兰大厂第二季的手机出货量就达1.1亿支，该公司也会通过其代理商来开发低端功能性手机。而尽管遭遇有苹果(Apple) iPhone 与众多Android手机等强敌在疯抢消费者，诺基亚仍握有实质的市场占有率。

“若忽视他们就大错特错了。”Burden认为，“因为诺基亚通常是第一家把新技术推上市场的公司。”由诺基亚共同开发的Symbian操作系统现在已经转为开放源代码，该系统进驻的手机数量在第一季为2,280万支，第二季又成长到2,580万支。

ABI认为，Symbian操作系统的成长动力来自较低单价的手机。至于第二季在手机操作系统方面的最大赢家则是Android平台，采用该平台的手机销售量由第一季的550万支，在第二季成长为1,130万支；该数量与第二名的 RIM 相当。

苹果手机的第二季销售量则是由第一季的88万支微减为84万支，部分原因是向新版iOS 4手机操作系统的转换；苹果手机销售量预期将因为操作系统转换完成、以及 iPhone 4 的上市而再次大幅成长。

不过ABI另一位资深分析师Michael Morgan表示，苹果本有个很大机会能抓住新的企业用户，但其有限的通路模式以及专注在高利润产品的策略，恐怕会让该公司错失由低端产品与新兴市场所带动的新一波市场成长风潮。

点击进入第二页：手机软件获利空间越来越小

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手机软件获利空间越来越小

ABI没有提供针对手机软件平台的预测数据，部分原因是该市场领域还有许多“外卡”选手；其中一个就是微软(Microsoft)的Windows Mobile 7。该平台预计将在今年稍晚正式发表，并获得宏达电(HTC)的新款手机采用。

Burden表示，微软的平面式(panel-based)用户接口，仍有可能会让拥有庞大联络人名单的使用者却步的疑虑：“那可能会造成使用者困扰，而且微软过于庞大，而导致它很难赶上开放源代码社群发表应用程序的脚步。”

以HTC来说，该公司搭上了Android风潮、最新一季的手机销售业绩由330万支成长到54万支；不过Morgan也认为，该公司锁定高端手机的策略，恐怕会阻碍其在低端产品市场取得新成长动力的机会。

至于其他“外卡选手”，目前还不清楚收购了Palm的惠普(HP)会怎么处理WebOS；类似地，诺基亚将如何使用与英特尔共同开发的MeeGo操作系统；以及三星将如何处理Bada平台，都是未定计划。

ABI的一份新报告预测，苹果的iOS操作系统与Goolge的Android平台，将在2010年占据手机应用程序下载总量的78%；其中iOS市占率最大，约52%。

“其他平台的下载量，例如黑莓机(Blackberry)的应用程序商店(App Store)与诺基亚的Ovi在线商店仍旧发展缓慢，原因是这两家手机供应商的多数产品缺乏多样性以及分散的状况。”ABI无线市场分析师Bhavya Khanna表示。

由于苹果、Google等厂商专注于供应免费与低价的应用程序，以吸引消费者选用他们的手机，整体手机应用程序销售单价呈现下滑趋势；Khanna指出，手机应用程序难以获利的情况将在2011年达到高峰，年营收将低于80亿美元。

点击进入：参考原文(Smartphone growth lies in low-end phones, by Rick Merritt)

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Smartphone growth lies in low-end phones

by Rick Merritt

Low-end and emerging markets are the next fertile fields for growth in smartphones, and Symbian and Android are the best positioned platforms to harvest them. That was the view of analysts at ABI Research who project sales of smartphones could double from about 200 million this year to 400 million in 2014.

"The high-end handsets are creating the buzz, but how fast these things can move downstream will determine the next big bump in growth," said Kevin Burden, practice director for mobile devices at ABI. "We will get to the point where every phone becomes a smartphone, but it will be a slow march," he said in a Webinar Thursday (August 4).

According to ABI, smartphones will rise from being 15 percent of all handsets in the first quarter of 2009 to 19 percent in the last quarter of this year. By 2015 they could represent more than 30 percent of all cellphone sales.

Nokia is well positioned for the next round of growth, Burden said. It leads the smartphone market with sales of about 45 million handsets in the first half of 2010, twice its nearest competitor. The Finish giant which sold a total of 111 million cellphones in the second quarter can also leverage volume channels developed for its lower-end feature phones and handsets, he said.

Although Apple iPhones and Android handsets command much of the mindshare, Nokia still has the actual marketshare, Burden said. "Ignoring them would be a big mistake because they are often the first to market with new technologies," he said.

The Symbian mobile operating system, co-developed by Nokia and now made open source, jumped from use in 22.8 million handsets in the first three months of 2010 to 25.8 million in the second quarter. ABI attributed the growth to lower ASPs on the handsets.

But the big winner in the last quarter was the Android platform which saw sales rise from 5.5 million to 11.3 million units, matching second place Research in Motion, ABI said.

Apple declined slightly from 8.8 million to 8.4 million handsets sold in the quarter, in part due to the shift to its iOS 4. Apple's sales are expected to surge again now that the transition is over with the release of the iPhone 4.

"Antennagate did not slow down iOS4 at all," said ABI senior analyst Michael Morgan. "It almost seems they can do no wrong, even if they do wrong," he said.

Apple has a significant opportunity capturing new business users. However its limited distribution model and focus on high-margin products could shut the company out of the next big round of growth in low-end and emerging markets, Morgan said.

Wild cards in mobile platforms

ABI declined to share forecasts of growth by software platform, in part because many wild cards are in the deck. One of the biggest ones, Microsoft's Windows Mobile 7, is expected to be released late this year, supported by new handsets from HTC.

Burden said he still has concerns about how well Microsoft's panel-based user interface will scale for users that have large contact lists. "It could get confusing, and Microsoft as big as it is will have a hard time keeping up with the pace of releases of the open source community," he said.

For its part, HTC was been riding the wave of Android growth to date, leaping from sales of 3.3 million to 5.4 million smartphones in the latest quarter. However the company's focus on high-end handsets may also prevent it from capturing the new growth at the low end, Morgan said.

Among the other wild cards, it's not yet clear what Hewlett-Packard will do with the WebOS acquired with Palm. Similarly, plans are unclear for how Nokia will use MeeGo co-developed with Intel or how Samsung will evolve its Bada platform.

Separately, ABI released a new report projecting Apple's iOS and Google's Android will account for 78 percent of all mobile application downloads in 2010, with iOS taking the lion’s share, about 52 percent.

"Downloads from other platforms, such as Blackberry’s App Store and Nokia’s Ovi Store remain sluggish, hampered by a lack of variety and fragmentation among both manufacturers’ many devices,” said wireless research analyst Bhavya Khanna in a press statement.

Average selling prices for mobile apps are declining as Apple, Google and others focus on free and low-cost apps to attract users to their handsets. Making money will become a difficult proposition in a market that is expected to peak in 2011, with annual sales of just under $8 billion, said Khanna.