微软生存危机论引发的观点碰撞

电子工程专辑美国版的编辑在参加了旧金山的一场移动通讯技术会议后，对于微软(Microsoft)的生存状况产生了担忧之情，在他看来，“后PC时代”平板电脑和智能手机都将威胁到微软的生存，然而，另外一名编辑却有不同的看法，下面我们一同分享。

微软恐将在“后PC时代”面临生存危机

如果有机会打赌，我会说英特尔(Intel)能在所谓的“后PC时代(post-PC era)”完整无缺地好好活下去，但微软(Microsoft)就不一定了……以上是笔者参加了一场在美国旧金山举行的移动通讯技术会议后，所产生的想法。

其实并没有来自英特尔的代表在该场会议上发表演说，微软也只占用了一个时段简介其Windows Mobile 7操作系统；该会议是由ARM以及其伙伴包括Marvell与高通(Qualcomm)的高层所主持，在软件产业方面，则有来自Symbian、Adobe以及Google的数名代表参与。

没错，这些日子以来兴风作浪的正是那些ARM/Android厂商，而“Wintel”则是扮演守旧派的角色，试图捍卫其市场专营权。但我认为，市场研究机构Barclays Capital最近发表的预测没错，平板电脑风潮将带给ARM/Android厂商们压倒Wintel的优势，而类似的情况可能会在2012年出现在服务器市场。

这只是刚开始而已……我们正迈向一个人们将使用多种移动系统、而且这些系统大多数不会采用Windows平台的时代；这类系统所切入的云端运算服务，也有越来越多同样不是采用Windows架构。

但这些系统还是可能配备x86处理器；无论如何，英特尔的Atom系列表现出色，不但很努力地在功耗上符合智能型手机需求，也尝试着进军服务器应用。ARM与其伙伴都深知，英特尔是如何日以继夜地致力于SoC业务领域，而且最后也成功地让其x86处理器有能力进驻所有未来的运算设备市场。

微软所面临的挑战就艰辛了许多──因为它得跟自由(免费)软件竞争；在服务器领域，该公司的对手叫做Linux，在移动设备领域，则有越来越多以Google Android为最大宗的各种移动Linux平台陆续叫阵，包括英特尔与诺基亚(Nokia)的Meego 。

在移动领域，微软一直扮演追随角色，而且表现不是很好。充其量，其多媒体播放器Zune目前落后iPod的距离还算合理──该产品上市的时间也比较晚；最坏的状况是，微软最近放弃了一款“mee-too”消费性平板电脑的发表，其诉求社交网络功能的智能手机Kin，最后也成了一场悲剧。

这也难怪微软最忠诚的OEM伙伴惠普(HP)会收购Palm；我预期未来会听到更多关于惠普如何应用Palm软件的讯息……以上都是笔者参与上述行动技术会议期间的个人心得，如果读者们对于“后PC时代”也有其他看法，欢迎交流！

点击进入第二页：反向思考：微软有生存危机？想太多了吧！

点击进入：参考原文(Microsoft may not survive post-PC era, by Rick Merritt)

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反向思考：微软有生存危机？想太多了吧！

在《微软恐将在“后PC时代”面临生存危机》一文中，笔者的编辑同事 Rick Merritt 对微软(Microsoft)的未来表示忧虑，认为在消费性电子市场的各种不同应用装置受到消费者更多青睐的同时，该公司恐怕会很危险。但我认为，这样的想法是有一点太夸张了。

首先，PC时代还没结束──虽然也不是还能持续好一段时间；其次，所有对所谓“Wintel”联盟产生威胁的新应用，还是会衍生PC相关的应用程序与产品，对英特尔(Intel)与微软这两家公司提供助力。

我还没听过有任何一家公司私下对微软发过牢骚；无论如何，在我们预期这家公司可能阵亡、要为其写墓志铭之前，也许应该先问问一些跟这家公司有关的几个简单问题──例如：微软的成长性如何？这公司是否已经遭遇严重的销售业绩下滑？

这里有一些数据可供参考：在截止于6月30日的2009财务年度，微软销售额为584亿美元，较上一年度衰退了3%；但同时间大多数的科技业者业绩衰退幅度甚至高达三成。其08财务年度销售额为604亿美元、成长18%；07与06年业绩则分别为551亿与443亿美元。

至于2010财务年度，分析师预期微软销售额可回升到617亿美元──这看起来不像是奄奄一息的企业会有的表现吧？

笔者认为微软生命力强劲的更充分理由，则来自于对该公司的另一个关键问题：他们到底在做什么、以及其产品范围包括哪些？当我们讨论PC时代的末日以及想象微软会因此灰飞烟灭时，恐怕是忘了这家公司所供应的应用程序与技术是如何的广泛。

微软的软件产品以PC应用为主，PC市场也可能正受到智能型手机等类产品的威胁；但这家公司的商业基础仍然十分强健。微软的产品涵盖范围，还包括服务器、智能型装置、分布式运算环境应用的服务器、商业应用程序、高性能运算应用程序、软件开发工具与游戏机。

以上还不是全部；微软业务触角伸及数字音乐与其他娱乐装置、外围设备，还有规模庞大的其他商业应用，例如网络广告，也供应一箩筐的专利产品。

换句话说，那些支持你的iPad、iPod、智能型手机、GPS或平板电脑等等装置，为它们提供内容的幕后服务器设备，用的都是微软的软件；没有这些服务器，你的iPad不过只是一块普通的板子而已。

微软的主要获利来源是PC相关业务，但这家公司可不是只有一招半式的小角色；如果你还是看衰微软，看一眼他家的保险库有多深就明白了──该公司截止于三月的那一季，拥有400亿美元现金、90亿美元长期投资，短期债务只有37.5亿美元。

在微软的手里有大把银弹，可供收购、产品开发、或者做任何他们想做的事；我并不反对市场的竞争是如何激烈，但要说任何一家公司会先阵亡，那绝对不会是微软！

点击进入：参考原文(Opinion: Microsoft dying? Don't bet on it, by Bolaji Ojo)

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Microsoft may not survive post-PC era

by Rick Merritt

If I had to place a bet, I'd say Intel will survive the post-PC era pretty much intact, but I am not so sure about Microsoft. That's what I am thinking as I head to a mobile technology conference in San Francisco.

Interestingly, no one from Intel is speaking at the event, and Microsoft has just one slot which it will use to preview its Windows Mobile 7 operating system. The conference is hosting chip executives from ARM and several of its partners including Marvell and Qualcomm. On the software side, there are speakers from Symbian, Adobe and several from Google.

Indeed, these days the disrupters are the ARM/Android players. Wintel represents the old guard, trying to hang on to its franchise.

I thought Barclays Capital had it right recently when they predicted the new wave of tablets will give ARM/Android vendors a boost at the expense of Wintel. The same may happen circa 2012 in the server sector.

I think this is just the beginning. We are entering an era when people will use many mobile systems, the majority of which will probably not use any form of Windows. Increasingly, the cloud services these systems tap into may not use Windows either.

They may use the x86, however. Intel has done a good job with its Atom design, has been working hard to squeeze it into a smartphone's power budget and has seeded at least one experiment in Atom-based servers. It has also been burning the midnight oil to catch up with the system-on-chip business that ARM and its partners know so well.

In the end, Intel is fully engaged and has the design and manufacturing prowess to drive the x86 into any future computing market. Microsoft has a tougher challenge—it must compete with free. In servers that's spelled Linux, and in mobile it is increasingly all about Google Android, the leading of a handful of mobile Linux variants including the Intel/Nokia Meego.

In the mobile market Microsoft is playing catch up, and not doing so well. At best, its Zune is a reasonably distant second to the iPod—and very late to market. At worst, it canceled a me-too consumer tablet design and its hip social networking Kin smartphone was a disaster.

No surprise then that Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft's ever loyal OEM partner, bought Palm. I expect to hear more about how HP will use the Palm software sat this week's event.

These are my thoughts as I head into two days of reporting on a mobile technology conference. I'd love to hear how the post-PC era shaping up from your perspective.

点击进入下一页：参考原文(Opinion: Microsoft dying? Don't bet on it, by Bolaji Ojo)

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Opinion: Microsoft dying? Don't bet on it

by Bolaji Ojo

In his article, “Microsoft may not survive the post-PC era,” Rick Merritt expressed concerns that Microsoft may be in danger as other applications in the consumer electronics market attract higher patronage.

These fears are overblown. First, the PC era is not ending, not for quite a while anyway. Secondly, all of the applications threatening the survival of Wintel as the Intel, Microsoft alliance is famously referred to, have PC-related applications and products supporting them.

I'm not hearing the wheezing sounds of a company about to croak from Microsoft Corp. In any case, before we write Microsoft’s epitaph in anticipation of its demise, we perhaps should ask a few rather simple questions about the company.

Let’s start with this: How fast is Microsoft growing or is it already experiencing severe sales slowing down?

Here are some numbers to chew on: In fiscal 2009 ended June 30, Microsoft’s sales were $58.4 billion, down 3 percent from the prior year – at a time most technology companies were reporting sales declines in the low to high 30 percent range. In fiscal 2008, the company posted sales of $60.4 billion, up 18 percent from $51.1 billion in 2007 and $44.3 billion in fiscal 2006.

For fiscal 2010, analysts forecast sales of the software company will rebound to $61.7 billion. That doesn’t sound like the last gasp of a dying company.

There’s a stronger reason not to bet against Microsoft and this comes from another critical question about what exactly the company does and the range of products it offers. When we discuss the end of the computing age and imagine Microsoft biting the dust as a result, we forget the wide range of applications and technologies it supports.

Microsoft’s software products go into PCs and while the personal computing market may be under threat from smartphones and the like, the fundamentals of the company’s business remain strong. These, according to Microsoft, include “servers, intelligent devices; server applications for distributed computing environments, information worker productivity applications, business solutions applications, high-performance computing applications, software development tools and video games.”

That’s not all. Microsoft is into game console, digital music, other entertainment devices and peripherals. The company has a hand in numerous other business applications, competes in online advertising and offers a raft of other proprietary products.

In other words, the equipment serving up content for and supporting your iPad, the iPod, the smartphones, the GPS, tablet PCs and whatever else is coming down the pike are servers for which Microsoft makes software products. Without those servers, the iPad is just a piece of chalkboard.

Microsoft’s bread and butter is the computing business but this is not a one-trick pony company. If you still want to bet against Microsoft, take a peek inside its vault. Microsoft closed its March quarter with $40 billion in cash and short-term investments plus $9 billion in long-term investments and only $3.75 billion in long-term debt. That’s a lot of ammunition for acquisitions, product development and whatever else the company wants to do.

I don’t doubt the ferocity of the competition but if anyone is going to cave in first, it won’t be the folks over in Redmond.