平板电脑暴涨，上网本已经出局？

平板电脑产品大获成功，分析师认为，此趋势将拉低笔记本电脑与上网本(netbook)的销售量，并让部分x86处理器芯片的生意被ARM核心处理器与Google Android平台抢走。

Barclays Capital日前发表最新研究报告，剖析因Apple iPad成功上市而兴起的平板电脑(tablet)产品，对行动装置供应链所带来的冲击。如果该机构的预测正确，平板电脑将成为首个明显驱动替代性架构的新产品类别，蚕食长期垄断运算市场的“Wintel”架构之版图。

来自美国华尔街的Barclays Capital分析师预测，今年多媒体平板电脑销售量可达1,500万台，并在2011年进一步成长至2,800万台，其中有七成是采用ARM核心处理器的Apple iPad。

Barclays并估计，有30~40%的平板电脑采购，是舍弃了上网本与笔记本电脑所做的抉择，其比例就很像是上网本所瓜分的笔记本电脑销售量。为此该机构将今年上网本销售量成长率预测由19%调降为9%，规模3,500万台，并估计该类产品明年销售量再衰退两成。

在笔记本电脑销售量部分，Barclays也将今年的成长率预测调降4个百分点，成为34%、1.83亿台；2011年笔记本电脑销售则可望成长25%、达2.29亿台规模。

而虽然Barclays分析师认为桌面计算机与服务器销售不受影响，仍基于平板电脑热卖趋势，将2010年整体PC市场销售成长率预测由21%调降为19%；主要是因为受影响较大的笔记本电脑是PC市场中成长最快的一个领域。

点击进入下一页：ARM、英特尔、AMD

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此外Barclays指出，平板电脑市场的兴起有利于ARM以及相关芯片供货商，但同时英特尔(Intel)与AMD厂商则可能受到轻微负面冲击。

“我们原先预测，搭载Atom处理器的上网本在2010年销售成长率可达20%、规模4,400万台；现在则将预测出货数字下修为4,000万台。至于2011年，原先对该类产品21%成长率、5,300万台销售量的预测，则下修为成长10%、4,400万台。”Barclays的报告指出。

对整体 x86处理器市场，Barclays也将成长率预测值下修了1~2个百分点；该机构现在认为该市场2010年将成长18%、营收规模3.98亿美元，2011年成长率则为11%、营收规模4.43亿美元。

Barclays仍维持对英特尔股票的正面价评，却指出：“投资者对平板电脑出货成长的认知，将影响他们对英特尔的看法。”该机构认为，英特尔会藉由锁定2011年x86架构平板电脑新产品的低功耗Medfield处理器，来抒解以上压力。

至于AMD虽然没有上网本专用的处理器，但可能会受到笔记本电脑成长率衰减的轻微冲击；该公司预期在2011年初发表适用平板电脑与超可携式PC的、搭载绘图处理功能的整合式Ontario系列处理器，也计划藉由新型笔记本电脑处理器的推出刺激业绩成长。

其他受到上网本市场衰退影响的厂商，包括供应该市场Wi-Fi芯片近五成比例的Atheros；不过Barclays也认为该公司将从平板电脑产品回收利润。此外Marvell与Micron也会因平板电脑热卖所导致的硬盘控制芯片与DRAM业绩衰退，而遭遇压力。

在软件厂商部份，Barclays指微软(Microsoft)也会受到平板电脑热潮的冲击，甚至预测该公司2011年营收将因此流失4亿美元：“我们已经看到Windows平台的市占率出现显著与持续形的流失，不过短期看来，所产生的财务冲击并不严重。”

点击进入下一页：微软令人困惑的产品策略

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微软最近才取消了发表自有平板电脑设计的计划，其设备相关业务的高层主管人事也出现大幅变动。Barclays的报告指出，拥有6种不同Windows embedded/mobile平台的微软，其手机/消费性电子产品策略依然令人困惑。

至于ARM则是平板电脑可能取代上网本趋势下的最大赢家；该公司的策略伙伴包括诺基亚(Nokia)、高通(Qualcomm)与德州仪器(TI)，可望在非Apple品牌的平板电脑市场取得三成左右的设计案。

有趣的是，Barclays的报告中并没有提到飞思卡尔半导体(Freescale)，该公司也销售平板电脑与行动装置用的ARM处理器。

Barclays的报告还将多家 iPad 芯片供货商列为平板电脑风潮中的受惠者，包括供应iPad触控面板控制器与联机芯片的博通(Broadcom)，RF与功率放大器芯片供货商Skyworks与Triquint，还有电源管理IC供货商凌力尔特(Linear)。

但平板电脑市场也不完全是ARM的天下，Barclays指出，思科(Cisco Systems)发表的Archos与Cius系列平板电脑产品，采用的就是英特尔的Atom处理器芯片；而AMD的Ontario也可望取得部份平板电脑产品设计案。

其他品牌大厂如摩托罗拉(Motorola)与RIM (Research in Motion)预期都将发表平板电脑产品，

诺基亚与戴尔(Dell)的平板电脑装置则是已经上市。韩国LG与三星(Samsung)都打算在年底开卖平板电脑；惠普(HP)虽预告了一款平板计算机产品，但可能会因为收购Palm而更改设计。

“虽然看来有这么多种不同的平板电脑产品，但我不认为其中有任何一款会是iPad的有力对手。”Barclays半导体市场分析师Tim Luke在报告中发表其结论：“我们相信这些产品中有大部份会使用Android以及Chrome操作系统。”

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点击进入下一页：参考原文(Analyst: Tablets rise pulls netbooks down，by Rick Merritt)

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Analyst: Tablets rise pulls netbooks down

by Rick Merritt

The success of tablet computers will drag down sales of notebook and netbook computers, shifting some business away from x86 chips and Windows toward ARM-based processors and Google Android, according to Barclays Capital.

Barclays issued a set of reports Wednesday (July 7) that run down the implications for the mobile supply chain of the rise of tablets in the wake of the success of the Apple iPad. If the predictions are accurate, the new mobile form factor could be the first to drive a measurable shift toward alternative architectures, chipping away at the long dominant Wintel duopoly in computing.

Analysts at the Wall Street firm project sales of 15 million media tablets this year, rising to 28 million in 2011, 70 percent of them for the ARM-based Apple iPad. Barclays estimates 30 to 40 percent of the tablet purchases will be made instead of purchases of netbooks and notebooks, just as the netbook cannibalized a similar percentage of notebook sales.

Thus Barclays is reducing its forecast for netbooks from 19 percent unit growth in 2010 to nine percent growth and sales of 35 million units. It expects netbook sales will actually decline 20 percent in 2011 to sales of 28 million units.

Barclays is also shaving four percent off its forecast of notebook computer sales. It now expects 34 percent notebook growth in 2010 to 183 million units and 25 percent growth in 2011 to 229 million units.

Although the analyst firm sees no change in desktop and server sales, the tablet shift results in a lowered overall PC forecast from 21 to 19 percent growth in 2010. Notebooks are the fastest growing segment of the PC industry.

Winners and losers

The rise of tablets will give a boost to ARM and a host of associated chip makers, while Intel and AMD will take a minor hit, according to Barclays.

"The primary change comes in our Atom-based netbook forecast which slips from 20 percent growth at 44 million units to 40 million units in 2010 and from 21 percent growth at 53 million units to around 10 percent growth or 44 million units for 2011," a Barclays report said.

Barclays sliced one to two percent of growth off its overall forecast for x86 processors. It now estimates the group will grow 18 percent to 398 million units in 2010 and 11 percent to 443 million units in 2011.

The analyst firm maintained its positive rating on Intel. However it said "investor perceptions of growth in tablet shipments [will] impact sentiment and the multiple afforded to Intel."

Barclays expects Intel will respond to the pressure with a lower powered Medfield processor in 2011 aimed at x86 tablets.

Advanced Micro Devices does not have a processor geared for netbooks, but could take a small hit from the expected decline in notebook growth. AMD is expected to roll out its integrated Ontario processor with on-board graphics for tablets and ultraportable PCs in early 2011. It also plans new notebook processors that could help it fuel growth.

Other companies that could suffer from a netbook decline include Atheros which owns about half the Wi-Fi sockets in netbooks, but could recoup sales in tablets, Barclays said.Marvelland Micron may also come under pressure as the tablet shift leads to lower sales of hard disk controllers and DRAM.

On the software side, Microsoft will also take a hit from the move toward tablets, losing as much as $400 million in forecasted 2011 revenues. "While we view Windows share losses as inevitable and sustained, impact on near-term financials [is] likely to not be severe," said one Barclays analyst in a report.

Microsoft recently cancelled plans for its own tablet design and shook up the management of its devices unit. Barclays said Microsoft's mobile/consumer strategy "remains confusing [with] six Windows embedded/mobile platforms."

ARM is the big winner in the forecasted shift from netbooks to tablets. Its partners including Nvidia, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments could see significant design wins in the 30 percent of the tablet market that does not go to Apple. Interestingly, Barclays made no mention of Freescale which also sells ARM-based processors for tablets and other mobile systems.

Barclays also called out many of the iPad chip suppliers as benefitting from the trend. They include Broadcom which provides iPad touch controllers and connectivity silicon, Skyworks and Triquint with RF and power amplifiers and Linear Technology with power management ICs.

The tablet is not an entirely an ARM play. Barclays noted tablets from Archos and the Cius tablet announced by Cisco Systems use Intel Atom chips. AMD's Ontario may get tablet design wins as well, it said.

Motorola and Research in Motion are also expected to launch tablets. Nokia and Dell already ship tablets. LG Electronics and Samsung plan to ship tablets before the end of the year. Hewlett-Packard previewed a slate computer, but may redesign it now that it has bid to buy Palm.

"What's interesting is there seems to be so many tablets, but I don’t think there are any big competitors to the Apple iPad that stand out yet," said Tim Luke, semiconductor analyst at Barclays. "We believe a lot of them will use Android and Chrome OS," he said.