分析师的困惑：芯片产能吃紧价格反跌为哪般？

市场研究机构Future Horizons的创办人兼首席分析师Malcolm Penn预期，芯片市场第二季的业绩表现将出现大幅成长，但令他困惑的是，那些“疯狂的”供货商在产品交货期拉长的同时，竟持续让芯片价格下跌。

Penn表示，部分芯片厂商忙着追赶市占率并向主要客户展现忠诚度，以至于忘了半导体事业需要利用重新拉抬产品平均售价(ASP)与营利，才能应付庞大的基础建设成本。而2010年正是个市场发展的大好机会，无论产品出货量与金额的成长动力都十分强劲，并持续超越分析师们的预期。

“我们对第二季芯片市场成长率3%的预测数字看来是太保守，6~8%会比较接近；”Penn的说法似乎意味着年度半导体市场成长率会更高。他向来对于产业前景保持高度乐观，也对大多数分析师支持他预测芯片市场年成长率约30%的倾向颇为自满：“最后的数字是28%或38%，其实没有多大差别。”

2010年的市场表现也或多或少影响到分析师对2011年的预测；在5月的一场产业研讨会上，Penn预测2011将是另一个丰收年，成长率可达28%：“我们现在显然处于景气颠峰，而接下来又将面临低谷，但会是何时、谷底又会有多深、景气下滑速度又会有多快呢？”他自问。其他分析师对于2011年市场成长率预测大多是个位数字。

现在半导体产业可说面临典型全面性的市场复苏；“订单满载，客户正在囤货、纷纷重复下单，而供货商产能吃紧、交货期拉长……但奇怪的是，除了内存市场，其他所有领域芯片产品的平均售价却一直在下跌。”Penn表示疑惑：“这是芯片产业一个最荒谬的状况，现在应该是半导体组件价格四处飞涨的时候；商业、经济体系与产业界实在是疯了，才会让产品价格在供应吃紧时继续下跌。”

由于供应短缺，半导体客户重复下单的情况在2010年上半年就发生，Penn指出：“重复下单并不等同于重复出货；一旦有这种情况发生，供应端必须跟上需求情况。”但现在除了内存市场，整体IC产品平均销售价格(ASP)已经低于金融风暴发生前，甚至持续下跌；内存组件ASP则是恢复到金融风暴发生前水平，并持续上扬。

Penn引述世界半导体贸易统计组织(WSTS)的数据，指出整体半导体IC领域的产品平均销售价格，是2009年11月市场呈现“销售一空”状态以来，就持续下滑。他认为，若是半导体厂商想对关键客户展示忠诚度，并不是让产品ASP下跌的理由；如此趋势只会让半导体产业的永续发展性面临风险。

半导体厂商若要获得保障，Penn建议它们与客户之间应签署五年期的不可更动合作协议，如始一来厂商才能获得终极性的长期订单承诺，并因此改善产能扩充计划、分担投资风险。他并认为，芯片产业界若要真正复苏与存活，“极度需要”重建现金流、利润以及投资策略。只有手头上有钱，才能负担制程微缩所带来的庞大成本，以及迎接深紫外光微影(EUV)、18吋晶圆等新技术所需付出的代价。

点击第二页：参考原文(Penn puzzled as chip ASPs fall during boom, by Peter Clarke)

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Penn puzzled as chip ASPs fall during boom

by Peter Clarke

Malcolm Penn, founder and principal analyst with market research company Future Horizons Ltd., sees the second quarter as being a "blockbuster" but is puzzled by the "madness" shown by chip companies that continue to allow chip prices to sink even as lead times lengthen.

Some chip companies are so busy pursuing market share and demonstrating loyalty to key customers that they are forgetting that the semiconductor industry has huge infrastructure costs that have to be financed by rebuilding ASPs and company profitability, said Penn.

And 2010 is the perfect opportunity as market growth, measured in units and value, continues to exceed analysts' expectations.

"Our 3 percent Q2 growth forecast looks increasingly timid, with 6 to 8 percent more likely," said Penn in the introduction to his June semiconductor newsletter. This is likely to push the annual semiconductor market growth even higher.

Penn has been consistently at the upper end of the spectrum of analysts and so expressed a satisfaction that most have now joined him in predicting growth in excess of 30 percent. "Whether the final number is 28 or 38 percent really makes no odds," Penn said.

With the results for 2010 more or less now "baked in" attention is turning to 2011. In May, at the International Electronics Forum, Penn predicted another boom year in 2011, of 28 percent. "We are clearly now in a boom and the next phase is bust, but when, how deep and how fast will it collapse," Penn asked?

Most other analysts see a return to more normal growth figures with single-digit percentages in 2011.

For now the industry is enjoying an almost classic market boom. "Order books are full, customers are building stocks, double ordering is rife, capacity is strained, lead times increasing and deliveries are stretched. Yet, memory aside, all other segment ASPs are still falling!" Penn express puzzlement saying: "This is chip industry nonsense at its worst. It's time to increase semiconductor prices everywhere. It is absolute business, economic and industry madness to keep decreasing prices in a tight supply market."

Double and triple ordering started in the first half of 2010 due to supply shortages, Penn asserted. "Double ordering is not double shipping, yet. For that to happen, supply needs to catch up with demand," he said.

With the exception of the memory market ASPs for ICs are lower than they were pre-recession and continuing to fall. For memories APS are back to their pre-recession values and continuing to rise.

Penn cited World Semiconductor Trade Statisitics as his source and the data shows that ASPs have been falling for the total semiconductor and IC sectors since the industry achieved "sold out" status in November 2009.

Penn said that loyalty to key customers was no reason to keep dropping ASPs which puts the long-term viability of the semiconductor industry at risk.

Penn proposed the adoption of five-year rolling contracts with cast-iron non-cancellable commitments. " That way industry will finally have long-term order commitments, capacity planning can be improved and investment risks shared."

Penn said the chip industry "desperately" needs to rebuild its cash, profit and investment position if it is to recover and survive. That cash will be needed to cover the exponentially increasing costs of miniaturization and the costs of introducing EUV lithography and 450-mm diameter wafers.