富士康事件再起涟漪，分析师齐述忧虑

对拥有富士康(Foxconn)品牌、为包括Apple、Dell、HP、Sony等大品牌代工的全球最大合约电子制造商(CEM)台湾鸿海集团(Hon Hai Precision Industry)来说，最近这段时间很难熬。

由于接连发生中国深圳厂员工自杀事件，富士康已经宣布加薪一倍以上；现在更有业界传言指出，该公司可能会把深圳厂移往人力成本更低的中国大陆其他省份。针对此事件对产业界造成的影响，各家分析师有不同看法：

富士康大幅调薪所带来的冲击

Gartner分析师Jamie Wang表示：“如此的调薪幅度可能会增加富士康的营运成本，并对其获利造成影响；但该公司也无法再承受更多的自杀悲剧，加薪将可改善其与中国当地员工的劳资关系，并有助于改善委托其代工客户的潜在负面印象。”

“现在看来，富士康需要的是小心专注地处理最近发生的事件，这可能会在短时间内影响其价格竞争力；然而在长期观点上，该公司对营运质量与生产力的持续关注，将可获得OEM客户的认可。”Wang认为。

HSBC分析师Yolanda Wang与Joyce Chen指出：“富士康最初宣布为生产线员工加薪30% (月薪由900人民币调高为1,200人民币)，并于6月1日生效；随即又在6月7日再次宣布为深圳厂员工加薪67% (月薪由1,200人民币调高为2,000人民币)，将于10月1日生效。”

这两位分析师认为，富士康最新宣布的67%调薪幅度，将对该公司的营业利润带来严重冲击。HSBC已将富士康2010/11年的EPS预估分别调降5%与11%，以反映劳动成本的上涨；不过仍预测富士康2010年销售额可望取得32%的成长。

HSBC指出，Apple的iPad、iPhone 4以及新型笔记本电脑都将会是富士康成长动力，此外台式电脑与服务器换机潮，也会带来不少需求；但零期间价格上扬的趋势，也可能为上述预测带来风险。

目前鸿海集团所代工的台式电脑数量占据全球超过五成，HSBC认为该公司将成为企业PC换机潮的主要受益者；鸿海也是Apple新发表手机 iPhone 4 的主要代工厂，这部分业务可望为鸿海2010年整体营收带来15%的贡献度。

再加上 iPad 依然在全球市场颇具销售潜力，HSBC认为该产品2010下半年出货量与上半年相比将成长超过五成；在液晶电视产品部分，鸿海在2010上半年出货量为200万台，该数字可望在2010下半年再增加400万台，主要是来自Sony的新订单。

下一页：对供应链、富士康乃至全中国所带来的冲击

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对供应链所带来的冲击

HSBC分析师也表示，富士康调薪可能会对整个电子制造供应链带来影响；因为这些同行与该公司分享类似的人力资源，特别是在深圳地区。

该机构分析师Wanli Wang与Carrie Liu表示：“薪资调涨是一个结构性议题，我们预期该效应将蔓延到其他位于中国大陆的制造厂商；除了鸿海集团，日本汽车厂本田(Honda)与显示器制造商冠捷(TPV)，最近也跟着宣布将中国大陆员工底薪调高两成。”

对富士康带来的后续效应

Gartner分析师Jamie Wang表示：“最近的富士康员工自杀/自杀未遂事件，据报导是与劳动环境有关；以营销的观点来看，这对该公司的名声是非常负面的影响；因为这些悲剧，消费者或社会舆论可能会以“不道德”的理由，迫使部分大品牌不再下单给富士康。”

“富士康向来被认为是良好的合作伙伴，因为代工价格低廉、交货快、质量稳定且产能充裕；其生意上的伙伴会期望这场骚动终究平息，而且大多数仍应会选择留下。而尽管富士康决定削减员工的工作时间，OEM厂仍会将更多业务委托给EMS/ODM，以减轻制造负担。”

对中国带来的后续效应

至于对整个中国来说，Wang指出：“富士康员工自杀悲剧可视为一个警示，也让当地拥有庞大制造人力的所有制造商上了一课；尤其是如果这些厂商采取类似的劳动政策，可能也会遭遇到与富士康相同的困境。”

“在中国，管理劳工的困难度越来越高，而所有OEM/EMS/ODM厂商都应该正视这个问题；中国的缺工问题可能意味着在该产业领域所聘雇的员工，包含更多不可靠的年轻人以及情绪敏感的新手，而这些将对厂商们带来很大风险。”Wang表示。

下一页：参考原文(Foxconn saga: What analysts are saying，by Mark LaPedus)

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Foxconn saga: What analysts are saying

by Mark LaPedus

Lately, it's been a tumultuous period for Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. Hon Hai, the world's largest contract electronics manufacturer (CEM), trades as Foxconn and makes electronic products for such brands as Apple, Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Sony.

As reported, Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. (FIH) recently announced it will more than double the salaries of employees at its factory in Shenzhen, China within months in response to a global outcry over recent worker suicides at the site.

Now, there are unconfirmed reports that FIH may re-locate some operations in Shenzhen to lower cost regions in China. Here's what analysts are saying about Foxconn's troubles:

Impact of salary hikes for Foxconn

Jamie Wang, an analyst with Gartner, said: "This wage hike may increase Foxconn's operational costs and affect its profitability, but the company cannot afford further tragic suicides, and this action will improve relations with its workers in China and help to deflect potential negativity from its outsourcing clients.

"For now, Foxconn needs to concentrate on handling recent events sensitively, which will affect its cost competitiveness in the short term. However, a continuous focus on improving quality and productivity will be recognized by Foxconn's OEM customers over the long term."

HSBC analysts Yolanda Wang and Joyce Chen said: "Following the June 2 announcement that FIH was raising pay for its production workers by 30 percent (from RMB900 to RMB1200) effective June 1, the company announced further significant pay hikes of 67 percent (from RMB1200 to RMB2000) on June 7 for production line workers based in Shenzhen, China (effective October 1).

"In the meantime, the company is reviewing potential pay hikes for workers in other areas of China. We estimate the latest 67 percent salary and wage increases could impact FIH's operating profit by another 66 percent."

HSBC analysts Wanli Wang and Carrie Liu, said: "We cut 2010/11 EPS estimates by 5 percent and 11 percent, respectively, (for FIH) to reflect the further labor cost increase. We forecast 2010 sales will rise 32 percent year-over-year. LCD TV, Apple iPad and 4G iPhone, and (notebooks) are the growth drivers. Desktop PCs and servers are likely to benefit from replacement demand. The risk to our forecasts is rising component prices.

Hon Hai produces more than 50 percent of global desktop PCs. The company should be a major beneficiary of the corporate replacement cycle. Hon Hai is the key assembler for Apple iPhone 4G. iPhone will contribute about 15 percent of Hon Hai's total sales in 2010.

Moreover, iPad continues to see strong demand globally. We believe 2H10 unit shipments will grow more than 50 percent vs 1H10. Hon Hai will ship only 2 million LCD TV units in 1H10. The other 4 million units will kick in during 2H10, with new orders mainly from Sony."

Impact on supply chain

HSBC analysts Yolanda Wang and Joyce Chen said: "FIH's pay increase could have an impact on the entire manufacturing supply chain, which shares a similar labour pool, especially in the Shenzhen area."

HSBC analysts Wanli Wang and Carrie Liu, said: "The salary increase is a structural issue; we expect it to extend to other manufacturing companies in China. In addition to Hon Hai, Honda and TPV also recently announced plans to raise employee base salaries by 20 percent in China."

More troubles

The fallout for Foxconn

Jamie Wang, an analyst with Gartner, said: "Recent staff suicides and attempted suicides at Foxconn facilities are reported to be related to working conditions, and from a marketing perspective, they have had a very negative impact on the company's standing. A consumer or public outcry could force some major brand owners to move their manufacturing away from Foxconn because of these tragedies, on the grounds of 'nonethical manufacturing.'

Foxconn is considered as one of the better partners, providing lower production costs, fast delivery, reliable-quality goods and very high volume capacity. Its business partners will expect the turmoil to eventually subside, and most of them may choose to stay with Foxconn. Nevertheless, OEM clients may use more electronics manufacturing service (EMS)/original design manufacturer (ODM) suppliers to split the production loads, as Foxconn reduces the working hours of its labor force."

The fallout in China

Jamie Wang, an analyst with Gartner, said: "Foxconn's suicide tragedies can act as a warning and a lesson to all manufacturers with huge labor forces in China, as they may encounter similar difficulty if they engage in comparable practices.

"Labor management in China is getting increasingly difficult, and all OEM/EMS/ODM companies should take the matter seriously. A shortage of workers in China means that there is a higher likelihood of more unreliable young workers and susceptible recruits being employed in the industry -- all of which pose a significant risk to companies."