2010年即将过半，分析师电子产业的十大看点

到目前为止，各种迹象都显示今年电子产业发展前景乐观，而且成长幅度会很大；但总是还有一些令人忧虑的地方……以下是EETimes美国版资深编辑Mark LaPedus对2010年“一则以喜、一则以忧”的十个看点。

1. IC市场火热……接下来会慢慢降温？

市场研究机构Gartner分析师Bryan Lewis与Peter Middleton表示：“ 2010年全球半导体产业营收预测可达到2,900亿美元规模，较2009年的2,280亿美元成长27.1%。”在第一季时，该机构原本预测2010年半导体产业营收成长率为19.9%。

Gartner的分析师指出，芯片营收成长率显然超越电子系统产业，而这也是值得担忧的一点；该机构最新的预测就认为，2010下半年的成长率将低于平均值。此外Gartner也预期半导体产业销售接下来将会出现一波配合电子系统市场销售表现的轻微修正。

2. DRAM热、NAND冷？

Gartner另一位分析师Andrew Norwood表示：“我们预测2010年DRAM产业营收将出现78%的成长率(高于二月时预测的56%)，原因很简单，就是价格。”该机构原本预期DRAM价格在2010年第一季中期达到高峰，但却持续走扬；上修的DRAM业成长率意味着该市场营收规模将历史第二高的409亿美元(最高纪录是1995年创下的422亿美元)。

而针对NAND价格不升反跌的状况，同样来自Gartner的分析师Joseph Unsworth却表示：“我们仍认为该市场第二季的价格疲软，实际上是健康的表现；消费者不应将最近的跌价误认为整体NAND市场景气将出现更进一步恶化的信息。”该机构认为NAND需求维持健康水平，只受到一些季节性的影响，而且下半年需求将转强，甚至在未来几个月出现缺货情形。

3. 半导体厂商调高资本支出……产能恐过剩？

市场研究机构IC Insights总裁Bill McClean表示：“在2009年第一季，整体IC产业产能利用率只有57%，但到了2010年第一季该数字已经来到93%，超越全球经济景气衰退前的水平。因为如此，据说有不少类别的组件难以维持正常交货期，甚至严重延迟交货。”

McClean指出，整体IC产能从2009上半年就开始吃紧，12吋晶圆产能尤其严重——在2010年第一季，12吋晶圆厂产能已经达到97%。值得注意的是，IC产业96%的产能利用率基本上代表着“缺货”的状况，因此IC Insights认为2010年IC市场成长率至少会有30%；而要维持这样的成长力道，必须有“缺IC产能”做为支持。

4. 硅晶圆狂缺货，平均售价水涨船高

Soleil Securities分析师Paul Leming的报告指出，硅晶圆半导体产业出现明显的价格上涨趋势；该机构认为，在2010年接下来的时间内，其价格上涨空间还有10~15%：“从(09年)第四季以来，供货商Sumco大砍资本支出，与07与08年水平相较少了九成之多。”

5. 无线芯片热销，平均售价下跌

FBR分析师Craig Berger表示：“根据最近调查迹象显示，高通(Qualcomm)第二季业绩维持在财测数据的高标，而且第三季、第四季业绩应该也会出现连续成长。再加上全球智能手机市场正夯，可望带动更多对WCDMA组件的需求，我们预测高通2010年QTL组件出货量可由原先预测的6.08亿颗，进一步达到6.25亿颗。”

不过Berger也指出，高通无线通信芯片组的平均销售价格，由08年12月的21美元，在2010年6月跌至16美元；而照理来说，其下滑速度不应该这么快。

点击进入下一页

{pagination}

6. 医疗市场潜力十足

Databeans分析师Susie Inouye表示：“我们预测整体医疗半导体市场营收将在 2010年达到30亿美元规模，较09年成长20%；而09年该市场衰退了7%。营收占最大宗的诊断与治疗相关应用领域，是推动医疗半导体市场成长的主力，也会有最佳的成长率表现。”

Inouye指出，由于有越来越多消费者对医疗保健产品产生兴趣、这些设备也越来越容易在零售商店取得，该趋势也直接反映在家用市场对医疗照护设备的需求量。再加上医疗科技的演进，提供了让病患在家接受治疗或是监控健康状况的方案，包括血压/心跳监测计、血糖仪等设备，在家庭中的渗透率越来越高，预期接下来五年内，家用医疗设备市场能维持9%的平均成长率。

7. PC市场动能强劲，供应链反应慢？

MF Global FXA Securities分析师David Rubenstein表示，内存厂商Elpida预期PC市场会出现20%的成长，而每台PC对DRAM的需求量将成长30%(从每台PC搭载2.4GB，成长为3.2GB)。而且Elpida认为20%的PC市场成长率预测是保守数字，因为在2010下半年，企业用PC需求将会带来更多成长动能。

Rodman & Renshaw的分析师Ashok Kumar则表示：“PC供应链(正要开始)提供支持。”

8. 太阳能产业回温但速度趋缓

Needham & Co. LLC分析师Edwin Mok表示，该机构估计全球太阳能发电设备安装量将在2010年达到11.2GW，较09年成长58%；不过到了2011年，该市场成长速度将趋缓，来到13%、12.7GW。以区域来看，德国仍将会是全球最大太阳能市场，不过在经历四年的强劲成长之后(平均年复合成长率达55%)，预期2011年德国的太阳能设备安装量将开始衰退。

“虽然衰退幅度不会向09年那样剧烈，我们现在预期2011年太阳能设备出货的季节变化趋势将与09年类似，也就是上半年出现需求趋缓，下半年又回温。”Mok并指出，由于认为各家太阳能设备业者将扩充产能且出现价格竞争，恐怕将导致市场供应过剩、产品价格下滑的风险。

9. 电视市场看好，LED缺货难避免

Barclays Capital分析师C.J. Muse指出，虽然最近有一些宏观性因素，电视机买气迄今依旧表现强劲，特别是在日本以及欧洲市场；而北美市场需求也有潜在增加趋势，估计会在下半年浮上台面。

因此该机构维持对2010年全球液晶电视(LCD TV)出货量接近1.9亿台的预测，但也有可能因为LED供应链的缺货问题，而无法达到此一水平。

10. iPhone当红，众家厂商跟着团团转

针对刚发表的新一代iPhone ，iSuppli分析师Steve Mather表示，平均售价高达600美元的iPhone系列产品完美展现了Apple的企业优势──也就是以高毛利、高附加价值的硬件赚取庞大利润：“这家公司很大一部分获利来自销售硬件，这种方法颠覆了多数科技公司销售低价硬件、而从高利润软件赚钱的模式。”

Mather指出，众家竞争厂商推出各种外观类似的产品以打击iPhone ，砸下大钱在各种昂贵的新功能上，导致这些产品的原物料成本(BOM)很高，但利润表现却不佳，只因为他们仍无法提供与Apple产品相同质量的用户经验。

(参考原文：10 reasons to be bullish and worried，by Mark LaPedus)

《电子工程专辑》网站版权所有，谢绝转载

{pagination}

10 reasons to be bullish and worried

by Mark LaPedus

So far, the signs are positive in the electronics industry this year. We're seeing a big upturn.

Still, I have some concerns. Here's 10 reasons why I'm bullish--and worried--about 2010:

1. ICs hot. Then cold?

Gartner Inc. analysts Bryan Lewis and Peter Middleton, said: "Worldwide semiconductor revenue in 2010 is projected to reach $290 billion, a 27.1 percent increase from 2009 revenue of $228 billion. The outlook for the semiconductor industry has improved from Gartner's first quarter of 2010 forecast, when we projected worldwide semiconductor sales to grow 19.9 percent.

"Chip revenue growth is clearly outpacing system revenue growth, and that is a concern. Gartner's new semiconductor forecast has below-average growth in the second half of 2010, as we are anticipating a minor correction to realign semiconductor sales with electronic system sales."

2. DRAMs hot. NAND warm.

Andrew Norwood, an analyst with Gartner said: "We are now forecasting that 2010 DRAM revenue will increase 78 percent (up from 56 percent growth in our February 2010 forecast). The reason for the upward revision is simple: pricing. Gartner had expected DRAM pricing to peak in mid-1Q10; however, it has continued to edge higher. This revision means that we are now forecasting industry revenue to reach $40.9 billion in 2010, making this the second-highest revenue year ever. Only 1995 revenue of $42.2 billion is higher."

Joseph Unsworth, an analyst with Gartner, said: "Gartner has maintained that some inherent price softness during the second quarter is actually healthy; customers should not misread recent price declines as signaling a greater deterioration of overall NAND market fundamentals. Gartner maintains that demand is healthy now, albeit influenced by seasonality, but we see no reason to deviate from our assertion that the second half of the year will witness a sharp increase in demand, driving a significant shortage in the coming months."

3. Capex up. Capacity woes

Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc., said: "While total IC industry capacity utilization was only 57 percent in 1Q09, it reached 93 percent in 1Q10, a level that was higher than before the global economic crisis! As a result, in 1Q10 there were a number of device types that were reported to be very difficult to secure or that saw leadtimes dramatically increase.

"As tight as overall IC capacity has been in the IC industry since the first half of 2009, 300-mm capacity has been even tighter! In 1Q10, 300--mm capacity utilization was 97 percent. It should be noted that IC industry capacity utilization figures of 96 percent essentially indicate a 'sold out' situation. IC Insights believes that one limiting factor to 30 percent or greater IC market growth in 2010 might be the lack of IC fabrication capacity needed to support such growth."

4. Wafer madness. ASPs up

Paul Leming, an analyst with Soleil Securities, said: "Pricing is demonstrably moving higher in the semi-wafer industry. We believe the odds of industry pricing rising by as much 10-15 percent over the remainder of 2010 is increasing.

"For the fourth quarter in a row, Sumco's capital spending was reduced sharply. Sumco's capital spending is now 90 percent below the levels of 2007 and 2008."

5. Wireless hot. ASPs fall

Craig Berger, an analyst with FBR, said: "Recent checks suggest Qualcomm's calendar 2Q business is tracking within the upper half of guidance, and sequential revenue growth is likely in calendars 3Q and 4Q. Given these checks, and given the global smartphone craze is likely driving higher global WCDMA device units, we are raising our financial estimates on Qualcomm to incorporate higher calendar 2010 QTL devices (up from 608M units previously to 625M units.

"That said, average chipset ASPs have fallen from $21 in December 2008 to $16 in June 2010, and mathematically should not continue to decline at this fast pace."

6. Take a pill

Susie Inouye, an analyst at Databeans, said: "Databeans projects that total medical semiconductor revenue will reach just over $3 billion in 2010. This is an increase of 20 percent compared to 2009 where sales were down by 7 percent. The diagnostic and therapy application areas are driving growth with the majority of revenue contributed by this segment, as well as the highest growth rate.

"The home market segment volume is a direct result of growing consumer awareness of health and wellness products and the availability of these at more retail outlets. With increasing technology in the medical market so to comes the ability to treat and monitor conditions at home. Products such as blood pressure monitors, heart rate monitors and glucose meters are becoming more prevalent in the home. Because of this the home medical segment is slated to grow by 9 percent over the next five years."

7. PCs rock. Supply chain slows

David Rubenstein, an analyst with MF Global FXA Securities, said: "Elpida envisions 20 percent PC growth and 30 percent increase in DRAM per PC (about 2.4 GB to 3.2 GB per PC). The firm thinks that the 20 percent PC forecast is conservative as enterprise demand for PCs gains momentum in the 2H."

Ashok Kumar, an analyst with Rodman & Renshaw, said: "PC supply chain (is starting) to back up."

8. Solar upturn. Slowdown seen

Edwin Mok, analyst with Needham & Co. LLC, said: "We estimate worldwide solar installation will grow 58 percent to 11.2GW in 2010, but by 2011, the growth rate will slow to just 13 percent, or 12.7GW. We believe Germany will continue to be the leading solar market in the world, but after four years of very strong growth (55 percent CAGR), we expect German solar installations to decline in 2011.

"While not as dramatic as the downturn seen in 2009, we now believe the quarterly changes in shipments throughout 2011 could directionally look similar to what we saw in 2009, where demand slows in 1H11 and then bounces back in 2H11. Furthermore, we believe capacity additions by the leading players are all very cost competitive, and as a result, increase the risk for oversupply driving down prices."

More worries

9. TVs up. LEDs shortages seen

C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said: "Despite recent macro concerns, TV sell-through continues to be strong year-to-date, with particular strength in Japan and Europe and potential pent up demand in North America which should materialize in 2H10. We continue to see likelihood for close to 190 million LCD TV shipments this year, though upside to this number is likely capped due to component shortages in the LED supply chain.

10. IPhone rocks. Clones roll

Steve Mather, an analyst with iSuppli, said: “Apple’s introduction of its latest iPhone today perfectly illustrates the company’s route to corporate dominance: generating huge profit by selling high-margin, high-value-added hardware, with the iPhone’s Average Selling Price at a whopping $600.

“The company makes the majority of its profit on sales of hardware. This approach defies the often-cited route to success used by many technology companies of selling hardware at low margins and cashing in on revenue generated by high-profit software.

“So far, competitors’ responses to the iPhone have been lookalike, brute-force solutions that throw money at expensive features. This yields a higher Bill of Materials (BOM) and generates lower profits--but still doesn’t provide the same quality of user experience as Apple’s products.”